{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\tbohmelt\polybox\Treaty Ratification and Leadership\1_New Data\FPA Replication\FPA Stata Log File.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res} 1 Aug 2017, 10:31:52

{com}. do "C:\Users\tbohmelt\AppData\Local\Temp\STD05000000.tmp"
{txt}
{com}. *********************************************************
. *                                                       *
. * International Treaty Ratification and Leader Turnover *
. *                                                       *
. * Tobias Böhmelt                                        *
. *                                                       *
. * University of Essex & ETH Zürich                      *
. *                                                       *
. * Address Correspondance to: tbohmelt@essex.ac.uk       *
. *                                                       *
. * This Version: August 1, 2017                          *
. *                                                       *
. *********************************************************
. 
. *************
. * Open Data *
. *************
. 
. use "FPA Data.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. ************************************
. * Table 1 - Descriptive Statistics *
. ************************************
. 
. sum ratification solschdum_exo election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade humanrights powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
ratification {c |}{res}      2,670    .8074906    .3943447          0          1
{txt}solschdum_~o {c |}{res}      2,670    .1322097    .3387821          0          1
{txt}election_d~y {c |}{res}      2,670    .6573034       .4747          0          1
{txt}number_rat~x {c |}{res}      2,670    74.61648    45.49022          0        185
{txt}polity_fir~r {c |}{res}      2,298    3.981723    6.490113        -10         10
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
securitycr~e {c |}{res}      2,670    .3775281    .4848594          0          1
{txt}{space 1}environment {c |}{res}      2,670    .3205993    .4667944          0          1
{txt}{space 7}trade {c |}{res}      2,670    .1449438    .3521101          0          1
{txt}{space 1}humanrights {c |}{res}      2,670    .1569288    .3638018          0          1
{txt}powermilit~r {c |}{res}      2,642    .0036154    .0494175  -.0122032   .4732169
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
openk_firs~r {c |}{res}      2,522    81.42491    48.39026   2.007636   456.5615
{txt}NUMIGO_fir~r {c |}{res}      2,651    65.44285     23.1074          6        129
{txt}{space 6}leg_ap {c |}{res}      2,611    .7801609    .4142169          0          1
{txt}{space 5}rat_yrs {c |}{res}      2,670    .3805243    .6222391          0          6
{txt}{space 4}rat_yrs2 {c |}{res}      2,670    .5318352    1.360029          0         36
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 4}rat_yrs3 {c |}{res}      2,670    .9198502    5.347457          0        216
{txt}
{com}. 
. collin solschdum_exo election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap
{txt}(obs=2,221)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
{res}solschdum_exo      1.14    1.07    0.8771      0.1229
election_dummy      1.18    1.09    0.8493      0.1507
number_ratified_max      1.26    1.12    0.7935      0.2065
polity_first_year      1.33    1.15    0.7541      0.2459
securitycrime      2.16    1.47    0.4635      0.5365
environment      2.17    1.47    0.4598      0.5402
     trade      1.73    1.32    0.5766      0.4234
powermilit_first_year      1.09    1.04    0.9196      0.0804
openk_first_year      1.14    1.07    0.8776      0.1224
NUMIGO_first_year      1.35    1.16    0.7401      0.2599
    leg_ap      1.04    1.02    0.9586      0.0414
{txt}----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF{res}      1.42

{txt}                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
{res}    1     6.4297          1.0000
    2     1.1137          2.4027
    3     1.0076          2.5261
    4     0.9866          2.5529
    5     0.8323          2.7794
    6     0.6525          3.1390
    7     0.2846          4.7535
    8     0.2395          5.1815
    9     0.1956          5.7327
    10     0.1467          6.6198
    11     0.0909          8.4087
    12     0.0202         17.8608
{txt}---------------------------------
 Condition Number{res}        17.8608 
{txt} Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix){res}    0.1972
{txt}
{com}. 
. *************************
. * Table 2 - Main Models *
. *************************
. 
. eststo clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. eststo: logit ratification solschdum_exo rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1307.8759
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1227.9283
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1220.7869
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1220.7735
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1220.7735

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}      2670
                                                  {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})    = {res}     71.18
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1220.7735                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.0666

                                {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}189{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
ratification {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
solschdum_~o {c |}  {res} -1.24435   .2222358    -5.60   0.000    -1.679924   -.8087761
     {txt}rat_yrs {c |}  {res} 1.531448   .4109571     3.73   0.000     .7259868    2.336909
    {txt}rat_yrs2 {c |}  {res}-.6650368   .3102208    -2.14   0.032    -1.273058   -.0570151
    {txt}rat_yrs3 {c |}  {res}  .044717   .0479917     0.93   0.351    -.0493449    .1387789
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 1.443524   .1012298    14.26   0.000     1.245117    1.641931
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}
({res}est1{txt} stored)

{com}. epcp

{txt}Displaying classification results for logit
Dependent variable: ratification
Using cutoff score of .5

Classification table

 Predicted {c |}
 values of {c |}   Actual values of
ratificati {c |}     ratification
        on {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
         0 {c |}{res}         2          0 {txt}{c |}{res}         2 
{txt}         1 {c |}{res}       512      2,156 {txt}{c |}{res}     2,668 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       514      2,156 {txt}{c |}{res}     2,670 

{txt}    Percent Correctly Predicted = {res} 80.82%
{txt}      Percent in Modal Category = {res} 80.75%
{txt}Proportional Reduction in Error = {res}  0.39%

{txt}expected PCP = {res} 71.16%
{txt}expected PMC = {res} 68.91%
{txt}expected PRE = {res}  7.23%
{txt}
{com}. estimates store logit1
{txt}
{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}Measures of Fit for {res}logit{txt} of {res}ratification

{txt}Log-Lik Intercept Only:{col 28}{res}  -1307.876{col 42}{txt}Log-Lik Full Model:{col 69}{res}  -1220.773
{txt}D(2665):{col 28}{res}   2441.547{col 42}{txt}LR(4):{col 69}{res}    174.205
{txt}{col 28}{res}{col 42}{txt}Prob > LR:{col 69}{res}      0.000
{txt}McFadden's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.067{col 42}{txt}McFadden's Adj R2:{col 69}{res}      0.063
{txt}ML (Cox-Snell) R2:{col 28}{res}      0.063{col 42}{txt}Cragg-Uhler(Nagelkerke) R2:{col 69}{res}      0.101
{txt}McKelvey & Zavoina's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.111{col 42}{txt}Efron's R2:{col 69}{res}      0.073
{txt}Variance of y*:{col 28}{res}      3.699{col 42}{txt}Variance of error:{col 69}{res}      3.290
{txt}Count R2:{col 28}{res}      0.808{col 42}{txt}Adj Count R2:{col 69}{res}      0.004
{txt}AIC:{col 28}{res}      0.918{col 42}{txt}AIC*n:{col 69}{res}   2451.547
{txt}BIC:{col 28}{res} -18584.860{col 42}{txt}BIC':{col 69}{res}   -142.646
{txt}BIC used by Stata:{col 28}{res}   2480.996{col 42}{txt}AIC used by Stata:{col 69}{res}   2451.547
{txt}
{com}. 
. eststo: logit ratification election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1050.3237
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-912.56073
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-896.25102
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-895.60387
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-895.60171

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}      2221
                                                  {txt}Wald chi2({res}13{txt})   = {res}    182.51
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-895.60171                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.1473

                                {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}149{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
ratification {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
election_d~y {c |}  {res}-1.012808     .17936    -5.65   0.000    -1.364347   -.6612685
{txt}number_rat~x {c |}  {res}-.0003931   .0017978    -0.22   0.827    -.0039167    .0031305
{txt}polity_fir~r {c |}  {res} .0688018   .0134836     5.10   0.000     .0423744    .0952292
{txt}securitycr~e {c |}  {res}-.1222018   .1571596    -0.78   0.437    -.4302289    .1858253
 {txt}environment {c |}  {res} 1.416469   .2167248     6.54   0.000     .9916959    1.841241
       {txt}trade {c |}  {res}-.7668339   .1820816    -4.21   0.000    -1.123707   -.4099605
{txt}powermilit~r {c |}  {res}-3.360651   1.319168    -2.55   0.011    -5.946173   -.7751285
{txt}openk_firs~r {c |}  {res}-.0029286    .001811    -1.62   0.106     -.006478    .0006208
{txt}NUMIGO_fir~r {c |}  {res}-.0143918   .0039506    -3.64   0.000    -.0221348   -.0066489
      {txt}leg_ap {c |}  {res} .3707074   .1826664     2.03   0.042     .0126879    .7287269
     {txt}rat_yrs {c |}  {res} 1.701374   .4869707     3.49   0.000     .7469289    2.655819
    {txt}rat_yrs2 {c |}  {res}-.7055163   .3866921    -1.82   0.068    -1.463419    .0523864
    {txt}rat_yrs3 {c |}  {res}  .041246   .0597665     0.69   0.490    -.0758942    .1583862
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 2.669813   .4677466     5.71   0.000     1.753047     3.58658
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}
({res}est2{txt} stored)

{com}. epcp

{txt}Displaying classification results for logit
Dependent variable: ratification
Using cutoff score of .5

Classification table

 Predicted {c |}
 values of {c |}   Actual values of
ratificati {c |}     ratification
        on {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
         0 {c |}{res}        46         29 {txt}{c |}{res}        75 
{txt}         1 {c |}{res}       356      1,790 {txt}{c |}{res}     2,146 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       402      1,819 {txt}{c |}{res}     2,221 

{txt}    Percent Correctly Predicted = {res} 82.67%
{txt}      Percent in Modal Category = {res} 81.90%
{txt}Proportional Reduction in Error = {res}  4.23%

{txt}expected PCP = {res} 74.52%
{txt}expected PMC = {res} 70.35%
{txt}expected PRE = {res} 14.06%
{txt}
{com}. estimates store logit2
{txt}
{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}Measures of Fit for {res}logit{txt} of {res}ratification

{txt}Log-Lik Intercept Only:{col 28}{res}  -1050.324{col 42}{txt}Log-Lik Full Model:{col 69}{res}   -895.602
{txt}D(2207):{col 28}{res}   1791.203{col 42}{txt}LR(13):{col 69}{res}    309.444
{txt}{col 28}{res}{col 42}{txt}Prob > LR:{col 69}{res}      0.000
{txt}McFadden's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.147{col 42}{txt}McFadden's Adj R2:{col 69}{res}      0.134
{txt}ML (Cox-Snell) R2:{col 28}{res}      0.130{col 42}{txt}Cragg-Uhler(Nagelkerke) R2:{col 69}{res}      0.213
{txt}McKelvey & Zavoina's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.300{col 42}{txt}Efron's R2:{col 69}{res}      0.141
{txt}Variance of y*:{col 28}{res}      4.698{col 42}{txt}Variance of error:{col 69}{res}      3.290
{txt}Count R2:{col 28}{res}      0.827{col 42}{txt}Adj Count R2:{col 69}{res}      0.042
{txt}AIC:{col 28}{res}      0.819{col 42}{txt}AIC*n:{col 69}{res}   1819.203
{txt}BIC:{col 28}{res} -15215.305{col 42}{txt}BIC':{col 69}{res}   -209.270
{txt}BIC used by Stata:{col 28}{res}   1899.083{col 42}{txt}AIC used by Stata:{col 69}{res}   1819.203
{txt}
{com}. 
. eststo: logit ratification solschdum_exo election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1050.3237
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-869.85495
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-845.12387
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-844.15093
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-844.14614

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}      2221
                                                  {txt}Wald chi2({res}14{txt})   = {res}    184.80
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-844.14614                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.1963

                                {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}149{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
ratification {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
solschdum_~o {c |}  {res}-1.587899    .277616    -5.72   0.000    -2.132017   -1.043782
{txt}election_d~y {c |}  {res}-.7013555   .1901973    -3.69   0.000    -1.074135   -.3285757
{txt}number_rat~x {c |}  {res} .0012635   .0018558     0.68   0.496    -.0023738    .0049007
{txt}polity_fir~r {c |}  {res} .0968387   .0161645     5.99   0.000     .0651569    .1285205
{txt}securitycr~e {c |}  {res}-.1163922   .1591117    -0.73   0.464    -.4282454    .1954609
 {txt}environment {c |}  {res} 1.441539   .2277884     6.33   0.000     .9950822    1.887996
       {txt}trade {c |}  {res}-.5709971   .1896672    -3.01   0.003    -.9427381   -.1992562
{txt}powermilit~r {c |}  {res}-3.251927    1.60335    -2.03   0.043    -6.394435   -.1094196
{txt}openk_firs~r {c |}  {res}-.0039379   .0019506    -2.02   0.044    -.0077611   -.0001147
{txt}NUMIGO_fir~r {c |}  {res} -.016654    .004514    -3.69   0.000    -.0255014   -.0078067
      {txt}leg_ap {c |}  {res} .3340338   .1935888     1.73   0.084    -.0453933    .7134609
     {txt}rat_yrs {c |}  {res} 1.522558   .5044759     3.02   0.003     .5338037    2.511313
    {txt}rat_yrs2 {c |}  {res}-.5973913   .3994965    -1.50   0.135     -1.38039    .1856074
    {txt}rat_yrs3 {c |}  {res} .0251254   .0630052     0.40   0.690    -.0983625    .1486133
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 2.793548   .5244386     5.33   0.000     1.765668    3.821429
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}
({res}est3{txt} stored)

{com}. epcp

{txt}Displaying classification results for logit
Dependent variable: ratification
Using cutoff score of .5

Classification table

 Predicted {c |}
 values of {c |}   Actual values of
ratificati {c |}     ratification
        on {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
         0 {c |}{res}       103         58 {txt}{c |}{res}       161 
{txt}         1 {c |}{res}       299      1,761 {txt}{c |}{res}     2,060 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       402      1,819 {txt}{c |}{res}     2,221 

{txt}    Percent Correctly Predicted = {res} 83.93%
{txt}      Percent in Modal Category = {res} 81.90%
{txt}Proportional Reduction in Error = {res} 11.19%

{txt}expected PCP = {res} 76.28%
{txt}expected PMC = {res} 70.35%
{txt}expected PRE = {res} 19.98%
{txt}
{com}. estimates store logit3
{txt}
{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}Measures of Fit for {res}logit{txt} of {res}ratification

{txt}Log-Lik Intercept Only:{col 28}{res}  -1050.324{col 42}{txt}Log-Lik Full Model:{col 69}{res}   -844.146
{txt}D(2206):{col 28}{res}   1688.292{col 42}{txt}LR(14):{col 69}{res}    412.355
{txt}{col 28}{res}{col 42}{txt}Prob > LR:{col 69}{res}      0.000
{txt}McFadden's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.196{col 42}{txt}McFadden's Adj R2:{col 69}{res}      0.182
{txt}ML (Cox-Snell) R2:{col 28}{res}      0.169{col 42}{txt}Cragg-Uhler(Nagelkerke) R2:{col 69}{res}      0.277
{txt}McKelvey & Zavoina's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.347{col 42}{txt}Efron's R2:{col 69}{res}      0.200
{txt}Variance of y*:{col 28}{res}      5.036{col 42}{txt}Variance of error:{col 69}{res}      3.290
{txt}Count R2:{col 28}{res}      0.839{col 42}{txt}Adj Count R2:{col 69}{res}      0.112
{txt}AIC:{col 28}{res}      0.774{col 42}{txt}AIC*n:{col 69}{res}   1718.292
{txt}BIC:{col 28}{res} -15310.510{col 42}{txt}BIC':{col 69}{res}   -304.475
{txt}BIC used by Stata:{col 28}{res}   1803.878{col 42}{txt}AIC used by Stata:{col 69}{res}   1718.292
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab logit1 logit2 logit3, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label
{res}
{txt}{hline 68}
{txt}                              (1)             (2)             (3)   
{txt}                     Ratification    Ratification    Ratification   
{txt}{hline 68}
{txt}Only ONE solschang~r{res}       -1.244***                       -1.588***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.222{txt:)}}                    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.278{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Time since last ra~n{res}        1.531***        1.701***        1.523***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.411{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.487{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.504{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}rat_yrs2            {res}       -0.665**        -0.706*         -0.597   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.310{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.387{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.399{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}rat_yrs3            {res}        0.045           0.041           0.025   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.048{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.060{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.063{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Elections           {res}                       -1.013***       -0.701***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.179{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.190{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Number of countrie~d{res}                       -0.000           0.001   {txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Democracy score in~a{res}                        0.069***        0.097***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.013{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.016{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Security and crime~y{res}                       -0.122          -0.116   {txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.157{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.159{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Environmental treaty{res}                        1.416***        1.442***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.217{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.228{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade treaty        {res}                       -0.767***       -0.571***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.182{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.190{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Power capabilities~ {res}                       -3.361**        -3.252** {txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.319{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.603{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade openness in ~r{res}                       -0.003          -0.004** {txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Memberships in IGO~t{res}                       -0.014***       -0.017***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.004{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.005{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Legislative approval{res}                        0.371**         0.334*  {txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.183{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.194{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Constant            {res}        1.444***        2.670***        2.794***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.101{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.468{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.524{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 68}
{txt}Observations        {res}         2670            2221            2221   {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}     2451.547        1819.203        1718.292   {txt}
{txt}{hline 68}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. 
. *************************************************
. * Figure 2 - Substantive Quantities of Interest *
. *************************************************
. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}. 
. estsimp logit ratification solschdum_exo election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1050.3237
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-869.85495
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-845.12387
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-844.15093
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-844.14614

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}      2221
                                                  {txt}Wald chi2({res}14{txt})   = {res}    184.80
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-844.14614                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.1963

                                {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}149{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
ratification {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
solschdum_~o {c |}  {res}-1.587899    .277616    -5.72   0.000    -2.132017   -1.043782
{txt}election_d~y {c |}  {res}-.7013555   .1901973    -3.69   0.000    -1.074135   -.3285757
{txt}number_rat~x {c |}  {res} .0012635   .0018558     0.68   0.496    -.0023738    .0049007
{txt}polity_fir~r {c |}  {res} .0968387   .0161645     5.99   0.000     .0651569    .1285205
{txt}securitycr~e {c |}  {res}-.1163922   .1591117    -0.73   0.464    -.4282454    .1954609
 {txt}environment {c |}  {res} 1.441539   .2277884     6.33   0.000     .9950822    1.887996
       {txt}trade {c |}  {res}-.5709971   .1896672    -3.01   0.003    -.9427381   -.1992562
{txt}powermilit~r {c |}  {res}-3.251927    1.60335    -2.03   0.043    -6.394435   -.1094196
{txt}openk_firs~r {c |}  {res}-.0039379   .0019506    -2.02   0.044    -.0077611   -.0001147
{txt}NUMIGO_fir~r {c |}  {res} -.016654    .004514    -3.69   0.000    -.0255014   -.0078067
      {txt}leg_ap {c |}  {res} .3340338   .1935888     1.73   0.084    -.0453933    .7134609
     {txt}rat_yrs {c |}  {res} 1.522558   .5044759     3.02   0.003     .5338037    2.511313
    {txt}rat_yrs2 {c |}  {res}-.5973913   .3994965    -1.50   0.135     -1.38039    .1856074
    {txt}rat_yrs3 {c |}  {res} .0251254   .0630052     0.40   0.690    -.0983625    .1486133
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 2.793548   .5244386     5.33   0.000     1.765668    3.821429
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}

{res}Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 6% 13% 20% 26% 33% 40% 46% 53% 60% 66% 73% 80% 86% 93% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10 b11 b12 b13 b14 b15
{txt}
{com}. 
. setx median
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(solschdum_exo min max) level(90)

{res}First Difference: solschdum_exo min max

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(ratifi~n = 1) |  {res}-.2995858     .0560142    -.3927583   -.2080555
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(election_dummy min max) level(90)

{res}First Difference: election_dummy min max

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(ratifi~n = 1) |  {res} -.065783     .0192951    -.0997775   -.0371945
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(number_ratified_max min max) level(90)

{res}First Difference: number_ratified_max min max

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(ratifi~n = 1) |  {res} .0256656     .0397909    -.0444762    .0883978
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(polity_first_year min max) level(90)

{res}First Difference: polity_first_year min max

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(ratifi~n = 1) |  {res} .3480569     .0627485     .2506601    .4539226
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(securitycrime min max) level(90)

{res}First Difference: securitycrime min max

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(ratifi~n = 1) |  {res}-.0140557     .0198017    -.0457087    .0190438
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(environment min max) level(90)

{res}First Difference: environment min max

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(ratifi~n = 1) |  {res} .1041778     .0245666     .0667206    .1480249
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(trade min max) level(90)

{res}First Difference: trade min max

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(ratifi~n = 1) |  {res}-.0844729       .02832    -.1320291   -.0375341
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(powermilit_first_year min max) level(90)

{res}First Difference: powermilit_first_year min max

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(ratifi~n = 1) |  {res}-.3077609     .1674448    -.6007957   -.0356491
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(openk_first_year min max) level(90)

{res}First Difference: openk_first_year min max

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(ratifi~n = 1) |  {res}-.3211529     .1808595    -.6343875   -.0405076
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(NUMIGO_first_year min max) level(90)

{res}First Difference: NUMIGO_first_year min max

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(ratifi~n = 1) |  {res}-.2481349     .0734588    -.3687127    -.131673
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(leg_ap min max) level(90)

{res}First Difference: leg_ap min max

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(ratifi~n = 1) |  {res} .0469279     .0291816     .0020373    .0973523
{txt}
{com}. 
. setx median
{txt}
{com}. setx solschdum_exo min
{txt}
{com}. simqi, prval(1) level(84)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [84% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(ratifi~n=1) |  {res} .8577637     .0270329     .8178379    .8947095
{txt}
{com}. setx solschdum_exo max
{txt}
{com}. simqi, prval(1) level(84)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [84% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(ratifi~n=1) |  {res} .5581778     .0589335     .4742884    .6388987
{txt}
{com}. 
. generate var57 = 0.8575566 in 1
{txt}(2,669 missing values generated)

{com}. replace var57 = 0.5535766 in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. generate var58 = 0.815474 in 1
{txt}(2,669 missing values generated)

{com}. replace var58 = 0.4619174 in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. generate var59 = 0.8939391 in 1
{txt}(2,669 missing values generated)

{com}. replace var59 = 0.6394741 in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. qui logit ratification solschdum_exo election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)
{txt}
{com}. sum solschdum_exo election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3 if e(sample), detail

       {txt}Only ONE solschange and before ratification (if
                 any, not in the same year)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        0              0
{txt}10%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}        0                      {txt}Mean          {res} .1517335
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} .3588431
{txt}75%    {res}        0              1
{txt}90%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Variance      {res} .1287684
{txt}95%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Skewness      {res} 1.941489
{txt}99%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 4.769379

                          {txt}Elections
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        0              0
{txt}10%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}        1                      {txt}Mean          {res} .6713192
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} .4698395
{txt}75%    {res}        1              1
{txt}90%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Variance      {res} .2207491
{txt}95%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Skewness      {res}-.7294313
{txt}99%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Kurtosis      {res}  1.53207

                {txt}Number of countries ratified
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        2              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        7              0
{txt}10%    {res}       15              0       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}       36              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}       68                      {txt}Mean          {res} 72.86988
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 45.10967
{txt}75%    {res}      109            182
{txt}90%    {res}      133            183       {txt}Variance      {res} 2034.883
{txt}95%    {res}      149            185       {txt}Skewness      {res} .1982025
{txt}99%    {res}      168            185       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 1.957991

      {txt}Democracy score in the first year of ratification
                           period
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}      -10            -10
{txt} 5%    {res}       -7            -10
{txt}10%    {res}       -7            -10       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}       -2            -10       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}        7                      {txt}Mean          {res}  4.03602
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 6.435932
{txt}75%    {res}       10             10
{txt}90%    {res}       10             10       {txt}Variance      {res} 41.42122
{txt}95%    {res}       10             10       {txt}Skewness      {res}-.7403292
{txt}99%    {res}       10             10       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.003275

                  {txt}Security and crime treaty
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        0              0
{txt}10%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}        0                      {txt}Mean          {res}  .374606
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res}   .48413
{txt}75%    {res}        1              1
{txt}90%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Variance      {res} .2343819
{txt}95%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Skewness      {res} .5181344
{txt}99%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 1.268463

                    {txt}Environmental treaty
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        0              0
{txt}10%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}        0                      {txt}Mean          {res} .3165241
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} .4652247
{txt}75%    {res}        1              1
{txt}90%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Variance      {res}  .216434
{txt}95%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Skewness      {res} .7889402
{txt}99%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 1.622427

                        {txt}Trade treaty
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        0              0
{txt}10%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}        0                      {txt}Mean          {res} .1535344
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} .3605831
{txt}75%    {res}        0              1
{txt}90%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Variance      {res} .1300202
{txt}95%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Skewness      {res} 1.922129
{txt}99%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 4.694579

           {txt}Power capabilities in the first year of
                     ratification period
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}-.0121389       -.012201
{txt} 5%    {res}-.0119434       -.012152
{txt}10%    {res}-.0117742       -.012152       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}-.0113062      -.0121516       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}-.0079326                      {txt}Mean          {res} .0053378
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} .0532321
{txt}75%    {res}-.0018562        .450671
{txt}90%    {res} .0211965        .450671       {txt}Variance      {res} .0028337
{txt}95%    {res} .0543747       .4611105       {txt}Skewness      {res} 6.294711
{txt}99%    {res} .4098355       .4732169       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 47.55861

      {txt}Trade openness in the first year of ratification
                           period
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 20.18257       2.007636
{txt} 5%    {res}  25.9046       2.012133
{txt}10%    {res} 33.82041        16.5495       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res} 48.06013       16.64417       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res} 64.51057                      {txt}Mean          {res} 74.88962
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 43.00702
{txt}75%    {res} 94.96259       426.7228
{txt}90%    {res} 127.4293       456.5615       {txt}Variance      {res} 1849.604
{txt}95%    {res} 151.6763       456.5615       {txt}Skewness      {res}  2.54392
{txt}99%    {res} 190.5897       456.5615       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 17.09784

          {txt}Memberships in IGOs in the first year of
                     ratification period
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}       23             13
{txt} 5%    {res}       37             13
{txt}10%    {res}       43             16       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}       56             17       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}       69                      {txt}Mean          {res} 69.41558
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 20.57272
{txt}75%    {res}       84            127
{txt}90%    {res}      100            127       {txt}Variance      {res} 423.2367
{txt}95%    {res}      104            129       {txt}Skewness      {res} .1355015
{txt}99%    {res}      122            129       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.843512

                    {txt}Legislative approval
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        0              0
{txt}10%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}        1              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}        1                      {txt}Mean          {res} .8230527
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} .3817101
{txt}75%    {res}        1              1
{txt}90%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Variance      {res} .1457026
{txt}95%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Skewness      {res}-1.693041
{txt}99%    {res}        1              1       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 3.866389

                {txt}Time since last ratification
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        0              0
{txt}10%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}        0                      {txt}Mean          {res} .3642503
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} .6137763
{txt}75%    {res}        1              3
{txt}90%    {res}        1              3       {txt}Variance      {res} .3767214
{txt}95%    {res}        2              5       {txt}Skewness      {res}  1.87797
{txt}99%    {res}        2              6       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 8.554329

                          {txt}rat_yrs2
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        0              0
{txt}10%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}        0                      {txt}Mean          {res} .5092301
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 1.379885
{txt}75%    {res}        1              9
{txt}90%    {res}        1              9       {txt}Variance      {res} 1.904081
{txt}95%    {res}        4             25       {txt}Skewness      {res} 11.56814
{txt}99%    {res}        4             36       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 247.4102

                          {txt}rat_yrs3
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        0              0
{txt}10%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Obs         {res}      2,221
{txt}25%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      2,221

{txt}50%    {res}        0                      {txt}Mean          {res} .8937416
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 5.712201
{txt}75%    {res}        1             27
{txt}90%    {res}        1             27       {txt}Variance      {res} 32.62924
{txt}95%    {res}        8            125       {txt}Skewness      {res}   28.998
{txt}99%    {res}        8            216       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 1007.765
{txt}
{com}. gen sim_probs=(exp(b15*1+b1*0+b2*1+b3*68+b4*7+b5*0+b6*0+b7*0+b8*-.0079326+b9*64.51057+b10*69+b11*1+b12*0+b13*0+b14*0))/(1+(exp(b15*1+b1*0+b2*1+b3*68+b4*7+b5*0+b6*0+b7*0+b8*-.0079326+b9*64.51057+b10*69+b11*1+b12*0+b13*0+b14*0)))
{txt}(1,670 missing values generated)

{com}. gen sim_probs2=(exp(b15*1+b1*1+b2*1+b3*68+b4*7+b5*0+b6*0+b7*0+b8*-.0079326+b9*64.51057+b10*69+b11*1+b12*0+b13*0+b14*0))/(1+(exp(b15*1+b1*1+b2*1+b3*68+b4*7+b5*0+b6*0+b7*0+b8*-.0079326+b9*64.51057+b10*69+b11*1+b12*0+b13*0+b14*0)))
{txt}(1,670 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. generate var63 = 0.5 in 1
{txt}(2,669 missing values generated)

{com}. replace var63 = 0.5 in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. generate var64 = 1 in 1
{txt}(2,669 missing values generated)

{com}. replace var64 = 2 in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. twoway (scatter var63 var57 if var64==1) (rcap var58 var59 var63 if var64==1, horizontal msize(zero)) (scatter var63 var57 if var64==2) (rcap var58 var59 var63 if var64==2, horizontal msize(zero)) kdensity sim_probs || kdensity sim_probs2, scheme(lean1) legend(off) aspectratio(1)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. *******************************
. * Table 3 - Additional Models *
. *******************************
. 
. eststo clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. eststo: logit ratification solschdum_exo minimum rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1234.9471
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-906.44533
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-881.85074
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-881.25812
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-881.25696

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}      2447
                                                  {txt}Wald chi2({res}5{txt})    = {res}    276.41
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-881.25696                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.2864

                                {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}189{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
ratification {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
solschdum_~o {c |}  {res}-2.037667   .2296014    -8.87   0.000    -2.487677   -1.587656
     {txt}minimum {c |}  {res}-.4964807   .0331325   -14.98   0.000    -.5614191   -.4315423
     {txt}rat_yrs {c |}  {res} .9218379   .4226005     2.18   0.029     .0935561     1.75012
    {txt}rat_yrs2 {c |}  {res}-.5818504    .325067    -1.79   0.073     -1.21897    .0552691
    {txt}rat_yrs3 {c |}  {res} .0494703   .0460651     1.07   0.283    -.0408156    .1397562
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 3.740975   .1841724    20.31   0.000     3.380004    4.101946
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}
({res}est1{txt} stored)

{com}. epcp

{txt}Displaying classification results for logit
Dependent variable: ratification
Using cutoff score of .5

Classification table

 Predicted {c |}
 values of {c |}   Actual values of
ratificati {c |}     ratification
        on {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
         0 {c |}{res}       219         80 {txt}{c |}{res}       299 
{txt}         1 {c |}{res}       278      1,870 {txt}{c |}{res}     2,148 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       497      1,950 {txt}{c |}{res}     2,447 

{txt}    Percent Correctly Predicted = {res} 85.37%
{txt}      Percent in Modal Category = {res} 79.69%
{txt}Proportional Reduction in Error = {res} 27.97%

{txt}expected PCP = {res} 77.94%
{txt}expected PMC = {res} 67.63%
{txt}expected PRE = {res} 31.85%
{txt}
{com}. estimates store logit11
{txt}
{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}Measures of Fit for {res}logit{txt} of {res}ratification

{txt}Log-Lik Intercept Only:{col 28}{res}  -1234.947{col 42}{txt}Log-Lik Full Model:{col 69}{res}   -881.257
{txt}D(2441):{col 28}{res}   1762.514{col 42}{txt}LR(5):{col 69}{res}    707.380
{txt}{col 28}{res}{col 42}{txt}Prob > LR:{col 69}{res}      0.000
{txt}McFadden's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.286{col 42}{txt}McFadden's Adj R2:{col 69}{res}      0.282
{txt}ML (Cox-Snell) R2:{col 28}{res}      0.251{col 42}{txt}Cragg-Uhler(Nagelkerke) R2:{col 69}{res}      0.395
{txt}McKelvey & Zavoina's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.407{col 42}{txt}Efron's R2:{col 69}{res}      0.320
{txt}Variance of y*:{col 28}{res}      5.544{col 42}{txt}Variance of error:{col 69}{res}      3.290
{txt}Count R2:{col 28}{res}      0.854{col 42}{txt}Adj Count R2:{col 69}{res}      0.280
{txt}AIC:{col 28}{res}      0.725{col 42}{txt}AIC*n:{col 69}{res}   1774.514
{txt}BIC:{col 28}{res} -17283.677{col 42}{txt}BIC':{col 69}{res}   -668.367
{txt}BIC used by Stata:{col 28}{res}   1809.330{col 42}{txt}AIC used by Stata:{col 69}{res}   1774.514
{txt}
{com}. 
. eststo: logit ratification minimum election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-997.38967
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-739.41391
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-713.78416
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-712.28839
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-712.27481
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-712.27481

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}      2036
                                                  {txt}Wald chi2({res}14{txt})   = {res}    240.86
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-712.27481                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.2859

                                {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}148{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
ratification {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
     minimum {c |}  {res}-.4416359   .0449935    -9.82   0.000    -.5298215   -.3534503
{txt}election_d~y {c |}  {res}-.0220079   .2032549    -0.11   0.914    -.4203803    .3763644
{txt}number_rat~x {c |}  {res} .0038667   .0024095     1.60   0.109    -.0008558    .0085892
{txt}polity_fir~r {c |}  {res} .0088759   .0146168     0.61   0.544    -.0197725    .0375243
{txt}securitycr~e {c |}  {res}-.4092139   .1774455    -2.31   0.021    -.7570007   -.0614271
 {txt}environment {c |}  {res} 1.243625   .2199316     5.65   0.000     .8125674    1.674683
       {txt}trade {c |}  {res} -1.07525   .2441683    -4.40   0.000    -1.553811   -.5966886
{txt}powermilit~r {c |}  {res}-3.682622   .8733193    -4.22   0.000    -5.394296   -1.970947
{txt}openk_firs~r {c |}  {res}-.0041124   .0019225    -2.14   0.032    -.0078805   -.0003444
{txt}NUMIGO_fir~r {c |}  {res}-.0088806   .0048222    -1.84   0.066    -.0183321    .0005708
      {txt}leg_ap {c |}  {res} .3838135   .2226108     1.72   0.085    -.0524956    .8201227
     {txt}rat_yrs {c |}  {res} 1.414959   .4751325     2.98   0.003     .4837166    2.346202
    {txt}rat_yrs2 {c |}  {res}-.6792311   .3830025    -1.77   0.076    -1.429902    .0714399
    {txt}rat_yrs3 {c |}  {res}  .048406    .054926     0.88   0.378     -.059247     .156059
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 3.409899   .5668985     6.02   0.000     2.298798       4.521
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}
({res}est2{txt} stored)

{com}. epcp

{txt}Displaying classification results for logit
Dependent variable: ratification
Using cutoff score of .5

Classification table

 Predicted {c |}
 values of {c |}   Actual values of
ratificati {c |}     ratification
        on {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
         0 {c |}{res}       161         59 {txt}{c |}{res}       220 
{txt}         1 {c |}{res}       231      1,585 {txt}{c |}{res}     1,816 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       392      1,644 {txt}{c |}{res}     2,036 

{txt}    Percent Correctly Predicted = {res} 85.76%
{txt}      Percent in Modal Category = {res} 80.75%
{txt}Proportional Reduction in Error = {res} 26.02%

{txt}expected PCP = {res} 78.39%
{txt}expected PMC = {res} 68.91%
{txt}expected PRE = {res} 30.49%
{txt}
{com}. estimates store logit12
{txt}
{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}Measures of Fit for {res}logit{txt} of {res}ratification

{txt}Log-Lik Intercept Only:{col 28}{res}   -997.390{col 42}{txt}Log-Lik Full Model:{col 69}{res}   -712.275
{txt}D(2021):{col 28}{res}   1424.550{col 42}{txt}LR(14):{col 69}{res}    570.230
{txt}{col 28}{res}{col 42}{txt}Prob > LR:{col 69}{res}      0.000
{txt}McFadden's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.286{col 42}{txt}McFadden's Adj R2:{col 69}{res}      0.271
{txt}ML (Cox-Snell) R2:{col 28}{res}      0.244{col 42}{txt}Cragg-Uhler(Nagelkerke) R2:{col 69}{res}      0.391
{txt}McKelvey & Zavoina's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.445{col 42}{txt}Efron's R2:{col 69}{res}      0.300
{txt}Variance of y*:{col 28}{res}      5.925{col 42}{txt}Variance of error:{col 69}{res}      3.290
{txt}Count R2:{col 28}{res}      0.858{col 42}{txt}Adj Count R2:{col 69}{res}      0.260
{txt}AIC:{col 28}{res}      0.714{col 42}{txt}AIC*n:{col 69}{res}   1454.550
{txt}BIC:{col 28}{res} -13972.929{col 42}{txt}BIC':{col 69}{res}   -463.567
{txt}BIC used by Stata:{col 28}{res}   1538.831{col 42}{txt}AIC used by Stata:{col 69}{res}   1454.550
{txt}
{com}. 
. eststo: logit ratification solschdum_exo minimum election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-997.38967
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-662.60511
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-624.64531
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -621.0725
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-621.00031
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-621.00027

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}      2036
                                                  {txt}Wald chi2({res}15{txt})   = {res}    225.55
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-621.00027                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.3774

                                {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}148{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
ratification {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
solschdum_~o {c |}  {res}-2.628222   .3110992    -8.45   0.000    -3.237965   -2.018479
     {txt}minimum {c |}  {res}-.5908348   .0539345   -10.95   0.000    -.6965444   -.4851252
{txt}election_d~y {c |}  {res} .6481009   .2321148     2.79   0.005     .1931642    1.103038
{txt}number_rat~x {c |}  {res} .0094213   .0024087     3.91   0.000     .0047004    .0141423
{txt}polity_fir~r {c |}  {res} .0378198   .0172436     2.19   0.028      .004023    .0716166
{txt}securitycr~e {c |}  {res}-.5117537   .1715584    -2.98   0.003     -.848002   -.1755054
 {txt}environment {c |}  {res} 1.187079   .2281401     5.20   0.000     .7399329    1.634226
       {txt}trade {c |}  {res}-.4181952   .2804083    -1.49   0.136    -.9677854     .131395
{txt}powermilit~r {c |}  {res}-3.838319   1.247978    -3.08   0.002     -6.28431   -1.392328
{txt}openk_firs~r {c |}  {res}-.0066192   .0020933    -3.16   0.002    -.0107219   -.0025164
{txt}NUMIGO_fir~r {c |}  {res}-.0113625   .0052353    -2.17   0.030    -.0216235   -.0011014
      {txt}leg_ap {c |}  {res} .3063322   .2113058     1.45   0.147    -.1078197     .720484
     {txt}rat_yrs {c |}  {res} 1.411095   .5196072     2.72   0.007     .3926832    2.429506
    {txt}rat_yrs2 {c |}  {res} -.748788   .4011349    -1.87   0.062    -1.534998     .037422
    {txt}rat_yrs3 {c |}  {res} .0578901   .0564981     1.02   0.306    -.0528441    .1686244
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 3.992402   .6807415     5.86   0.000     2.658173    5.326631
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}
({res}est3{txt} stored)

{com}. epcp

{txt}Displaying classification results for logit
Dependent variable: ratification
Using cutoff score of .5

Classification table

 Predicted {c |}
 values of {c |}   Actual values of
ratificati {c |}     ratification
        on {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
         0 {c |}{res}       201         64 {txt}{c |}{res}       265 
{txt}         1 {c |}{res}       191      1,580 {txt}{c |}{res}     1,771 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       392      1,644 {txt}{c |}{res}     2,036 

{txt}    Percent Correctly Predicted = {res} 87.48%
{txt}      Percent in Modal Category = {res} 80.75%
{txt}Proportional Reduction in Error = {res} 34.95%

{txt}expected PCP = {res} 81.35%
{txt}expected PMC = {res} 68.91%
{txt}expected PRE = {res} 40.02%
{txt}
{com}. estimates store logit13
{txt}
{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}Measures of Fit for {res}logit{txt} of {res}ratification

{txt}Log-Lik Intercept Only:{col 28}{res}   -997.390{col 42}{txt}Log-Lik Full Model:{col 69}{res}   -621.000
{txt}D(2020):{col 28}{res}   1242.001{col 42}{txt}LR(15):{col 69}{res}    752.779
{txt}{col 28}{res}{col 42}{txt}Prob > LR:{col 69}{res}      0.000
{txt}McFadden's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.377{col 42}{txt}McFadden's Adj R2:{col 69}{res}      0.361
{txt}ML (Cox-Snell) R2:{col 28}{res}      0.309{col 42}{txt}Cragg-Uhler(Nagelkerke) R2:{col 69}{res}      0.495
{txt}McKelvey & Zavoina's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.552{col 42}{txt}Efron's R2:{col 69}{res}      0.396
{txt}Variance of y*:{col 28}{res}      7.339{col 42}{txt}Variance of error:{col 69}{res}      3.290
{txt}Count R2:{col 28}{res}      0.875{col 42}{txt}Adj Count R2:{col 69}{res}      0.349
{txt}AIC:{col 28}{res}      0.626{col 42}{txt}AIC*n:{col 69}{res}   1274.001
{txt}BIC:{col 28}{res} -14147.859{col 42}{txt}BIC':{col 69}{res}   -638.498
{txt}BIC used by Stata:{col 28}{res}   1363.900{col 42}{txt}AIC used by Stata:{col 69}{res}   1274.001
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab logit11 logit12 logit13, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label
{res}
{txt}{hline 68}
{txt}                              (1)             (2)             (3)   
{txt}                     Ratification    Ratification    Ratification   
{txt}{hline 68}
{txt}Only ONE solschang~r{res}       -2.038***                       -2.628***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.230{txt:)}}                    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.311{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Minimum years elap~a{res}       -0.496***       -0.442***       -0.591***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.033{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.045{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.054{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Time since last ra~n{res}        0.922**         1.415***        1.411***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.423{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.475{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.520{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}rat_yrs2            {res}       -0.582*         -0.679*         -0.749*  {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.325{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.383{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.401{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}rat_yrs3            {res}        0.049           0.048           0.058   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.046{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.055{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.056{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Elections           {res}                       -0.022           0.648***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.203{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.232{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Number of countrie~d{res}                        0.004           0.009***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Democracy score in~a{res}                        0.009           0.038** {txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.015{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.017{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Security and crime~y{res}                       -0.409**        -0.512***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.177{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.172{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Environmental treaty{res}                        1.244***        1.187***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.220{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.228{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade treaty        {res}                       -1.075***       -0.418   {txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.244{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.280{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Power capabilities~ {res}                       -3.683***       -3.838***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.873{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.248{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade openness in ~r{res}                       -0.004**        -0.007***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Memberships in IGO~t{res}                       -0.009*         -0.011** {txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.005{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.005{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Legislative approval{res}                        0.384*          0.306   {txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.223{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.211{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Constant            {res}        3.741***        3.410***        3.992***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.184{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.567{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.681{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 68}
{txt}Observations        {res}         2447            2036            2036   {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}     1774.514        1454.550        1274.001   {txt}
{txt}{hline 68}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. 
. ***************************
. * Supplementary Materials *
. ***************************
. 
. ****** Table A1 ******
. 
. eststo clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}. 
. sum year_diff

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 3}year_diff {c |}{res}      2,670    4.335768    3.192889         .5         18
{txt}
{com}. keep if year_diff<r(mean)
{txt}(956 observations deleted)

{com}. 
. eststo: logit ratification solschdum_exo election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)

{txt}note: environment != 0 predicts success perfectly
      environment dropped and 496 obs not used

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -300.6473
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -243.6948
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-220.00581
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-216.84183
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-216.05118
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.77596
{txt}Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.67522
{txt}Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.63823
{txt}Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.62463
{txt}Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.61963
{txt}Iteration 10:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.61779
{txt}Iteration 11:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.61711
{txt}Iteration 12:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.61686
{txt}Iteration 13:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.61677
{txt}Iteration 14:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.61673
{txt}Iteration 15:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.61672
{txt}Iteration 16:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.61672
{txt}Iteration 17:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.61672
{txt}Iteration 18:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.61672

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}       957
                                                  {txt}{help j_robustsingular:Wald chi2(11)}   = {res}         .
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}         .
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-215.61672                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.2828

                                {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}138{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
ratification {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
solschdum_~o {c |}  {res}-2.283667   .5087495    -4.49   0.000    -3.280798   -1.286536
{txt}election_d~y {c |}  {res} .5092933   .3440027     1.48   0.139    -.1649396    1.183526
{txt}number_rat~x {c |}  {res} .0327694   .0034992     9.36   0.000      .025911    .0396277
{txt}polity_fir~r {c |}  {res} .0697492   .0243853     2.86   0.004     .0219548    .1175436
{txt}securitycr~e {c |}  {res}-18.41052   .2916049   -63.14   0.000    -18.98205   -17.83898
       {txt}trade {c |}  {res} -17.1798          .        .       .            .           .
{txt}powermilit~r {c |}  {res}-5.383944   1.338812    -4.02   0.000    -8.007968    -2.75992
{txt}openk_firs~r {c |}  {res}-.0123789   .0023113    -5.36   0.000     -.016909   -.0078489
{txt}NUMIGO_fir~r {c |}  {res}-.0185418   .0070693    -2.62   0.009    -.0323973   -.0046863
      {txt}leg_ap {c |}  {res}-.2042398   .3232448    -0.63   0.527    -.8377879    .4293083
     {txt}rat_yrs {c |}  {res} 8.444696   .4341567    19.45   0.000     7.593765    9.295628
    {txt}rat_yrs2 {c |}  {res}-10.78679          .        .       .            .           .
    {txt}rat_yrs3 {c |}  {res} 3.305705   .1118536    29.55   0.000     3.086476    3.524934
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res}  20.7724   .7635766    27.20   0.000     19.27582    22.26898
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}
Note: 0 failures and 189 successes completely determined.
({res}est1{txt} stored)

{com}. estimates store logit4
{txt}
{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}Measures of Fit for {res}logit{txt} of {res}ratification

{txt}Log-Lik Intercept Only:{col 28}{res}   -300.647{col 42}{txt}Log-Lik Full Model:{col 69}{res}   -215.617
{txt}D(945):{col 28}{res}    431.233{col 42}{txt}LR(11):{col 69}{res}    170.061
{txt}{col 28}{res}{col 42}{txt}Prob > LR:{col 69}{res}      0.000
{txt}McFadden's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.283{col 42}{txt}McFadden's Adj R2:{col 69}{res}      0.243
{txt}ML (Cox-Snell) R2:{col 28}{res}      0.163{col 42}{txt}Cragg-Uhler(Nagelkerke) R2:{col 69}{res}      0.349
{txt}McKelvey & Zavoina's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.985{col 42}{txt}Efron's R2:{col 69}{res}      0.206
{txt}Variance of y*:{col 28}{res}    213.800{col 42}{txt}Variance of error:{col 69}{res}      3.290
{txt}Count R2:{col 28}{res}      0.913{col 42}{txt}Adj Count R2:{col 69}{res}      0.088
{txt}AIC:{col 28}{res}      0.476{col 42}{txt}AIC*n:{col 69}{res}    455.233
{txt}BIC:{col 28}{res}  -6055.061{col 42}{txt}BIC':{col 69}{res}    -94.559
{txt}BIC used by Stata:{col 28}{res}    513.599{col 42}{txt}AIC used by Stata:{col 69}{res}    455.233
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab logit4, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label
{res}
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}                              (1)   
{txt}                     Ratification   
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}Only ONE solschang~r{res}       -2.284***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.509{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Elections           {res}        0.509   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.344{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Number of countrie~d{res}        0.033***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.003{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Democracy score in~a{res}        0.070***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.024{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Security and crime~y{res}      -18.411***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.292{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade treaty        {res}      -17.180   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.000{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Power capabilities~ {res}       -5.384***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.339{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade openness in ~r{res}       -0.012***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Memberships in IGO~t{res}       -0.019***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.007{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Legislative approval{res}       -0.204   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.323{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Time since last ra~n{res}        8.445***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.434{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}rat_yrs2            {res}      -10.787   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.000{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}rat_yrs3            {res}        3.306***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.112{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Constant            {res}       20.772***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.764{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}Observations        {res}          957   {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}      455.233   {txt}
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. 
. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. ****** Table A2 ******
. 
. eststo clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. eststo: logit ratification solschdum_exo election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, vce(bootstrap, rep(1000))
{txt}(running logit_10 on estimation sample)

Bootstrap replications ({res}1000{txt})
{hline 4}{c +}{hline 3} 1 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 2 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 3 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 4 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 5 
..................................................    50
..................................................   100
..................................................   150
..................................................   200
..................................................   250
..................................................   300
..................................................   350
..................................................   400
..................................................   450
..................................................   500
..................................................   550
..................................................   600
..................................................   650
..................................................   700
..................................................   750
..........................................{err}x{txt}.......   800
..................................................   850
..................................................   900
..................................................   950
..................................................  1000
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,221
{txt}{col 49}Replications{col 67}= {res}       999
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}14{txt}){col 67}= {res}    297.69
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-844.14614{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1963

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 23}{c |}   Observed{col 35}   Bootstrap{col 63}         Norm{col 76}al-based
{col 1}         ratification{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 8}solschdum_exo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.587899{col 35}{space 2} .1568157{col 46}{space 1}  -10.13{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.895253{col 76}{space 3}-1.280546
{txt}{space 7}election_dummy {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.7013555{col 35}{space 2}   .16129{col 46}{space 1}   -4.35{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.017478{col 76}{space 3}-.3852328
{txt}{space 2}number_ratified_max {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0012635{col 35}{space 2} .0017031{col 46}{space 1}    0.74{col 55}{space 3}0.458{col 63}{space 4}-.0020746{col 76}{space 3} .0046015
{txt}{space 4}polity_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0968387{col 35}{space 2} .0111701{col 46}{space 1}    8.67{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0749457{col 76}{space 3} .1187318
{txt}{space 8}securitycrime {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1163922{col 35}{space 2} .1718022{col 46}{space 1}   -0.68{col 55}{space 3}0.498{col 63}{space 4}-.4531184{col 76}{space 3} .2203339
{txt}{space 10}environment {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.441539{col 35}{space 2} .2162949{col 46}{space 1}    6.66{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 1.017609{col 76}{space 3} 1.865469
{txt}{space 16}trade {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.5709971{col 35}{space 2} .1842719{col 46}{space 1}   -3.10{col 55}{space 3}0.002{col 63}{space 4}-.9321635{col 76}{space 3}-.2098308
{txt}powermilit_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-3.251927{col 35}{space 2} 1.068391{col 46}{space 1}   -3.04{col 55}{space 3}0.002{col 63}{space 4}-5.345935{col 76}{space 3} -1.15792
{txt}{space 5}openk_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0039379{col 35}{space 2} .0014944{col 46}{space 1}   -2.64{col 55}{space 3}0.008{col 63}{space 4}-.0068669{col 76}{space 3}-.0010088
{txt}{space 4}NUMIGO_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.016654{col 35}{space 2}  .003552{col 46}{space 1}   -4.69{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0236158{col 76}{space 3}-.0096923
{txt}{space 15}leg_ap {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3340338{col 35}{space 2} .1544499{col 46}{space 1}    2.16{col 55}{space 3}0.031{col 63}{space 4} .0313176{col 76}{space 3}   .63675
{txt}{space 14}rat_yrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.522558{col 35}{space 2} 2.295003{col 46}{space 1}    0.66{col 55}{space 3}0.507{col 63}{space 4}-2.975565{col 76}{space 3} 6.020682
{txt}{space 13}rat_yrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.5973913{col 35}{space 2} 3.316917{col 46}{space 1}   -0.18{col 55}{space 3}0.857{col 63}{space 4}-7.098429{col 76}{space 3} 5.903646
{txt}{space 13}rat_yrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0251254{col 35}{space 2} 1.072927{col 46}{space 1}    0.02{col 55}{space 3}0.981{col 63}{space 4}-2.077772{col 76}{space 3} 2.128023
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.793548{col 35}{space 2} .4168578{col 46}{space 1}    6.70{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 1.976522{col 76}{space 3} 3.610575
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 79}Note: One or more parameters could not be estimated in 1 bootstrap replicate; standard-error estimates include only complete replications.{p_end}
({res}est1{txt} stored)

{com}. estimates store logit5
{txt}
{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}Measures of Fit for {res}logit{txt} of {res}ratification

{txt}Log-Lik Intercept Only:{col 28}{res}  -1050.324{col 42}{txt}Log-Lik Full Model:{col 69}{res}   -844.146
{txt}D(2206):{col 28}{res}   1688.292{col 42}{txt}LR(14):{col 69}{res}    412.355
{txt}{col 28}{res}{col 42}{txt}Prob > LR:{col 69}{res}      0.000
{txt}McFadden's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.196{col 42}{txt}McFadden's Adj R2:{col 69}{res}      0.182
{txt}ML (Cox-Snell) R2:{col 28}{res}      0.169{col 42}{txt}Cragg-Uhler(Nagelkerke) R2:{col 69}{res}      0.277
{txt}McKelvey & Zavoina's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.347{col 42}{txt}Efron's R2:{col 69}{res}      0.200
{txt}Variance of y*:{col 28}{res}      5.036{col 42}{txt}Variance of error:{col 69}{res}      3.290
{txt}Count R2:{col 28}{res}      0.839{col 42}{txt}Adj Count R2:{col 69}{res}      0.112
{txt}AIC:{col 28}{res}      0.774{col 42}{txt}AIC*n:{col 69}{res}   1718.292
{txt}BIC:{col 28}{res} -15310.510{col 42}{txt}BIC':{col 69}{res}   -304.475
{txt}BIC used by Stata:{col 28}{res}   1803.878{col 42}{txt}AIC used by Stata:{col 69}{res}   1718.292
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab logit5, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label
{res}
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}                              (1)   
{txt}                     Ratification   
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}Only ONE solschang~r{res}       -1.588***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.157{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Elections           {res}       -0.701***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.161{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Number of countrie~d{res}        0.001   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Democracy score in~a{res}        0.097***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.011{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Security and crime~y{res}       -0.116   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.172{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Environmental treaty{res}        1.442***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.216{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade treaty        {res}       -0.571***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.184{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Power capabilities~ {res}       -3.252***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.068{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade openness in ~r{res}       -0.004***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.001{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Memberships in IGO~t{res}       -0.017***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.004{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Legislative approval{res}        0.334** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.154{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Time since last ra~n{res}        1.523   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.295{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}rat_yrs2            {res}       -0.597   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.317{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}rat_yrs3            {res}        0.025   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.073{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Constant            {res}        2.794***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.417{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}Observations        {res}         2221   {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}     1718.292   {txt}
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. 
. ****** Table A3 ******
. 
. eststo clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. stset year_diff, failure(ratification) id(dyad2)

                {txt}id:  {res}dyad2
     {txt}failure event:  {res}ratification != 0 & ratification < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(year_diff[_n-1], year_diff]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}       2670{txt}  total observations
{res}          0{txt}  exclusions
{hline 78}
{res}       2670{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}       2670{txt}  subjects
{res}       2156{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}    11576.5{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}       18
{txt}
{com}. 
. eststo: stcox solschdum_exo election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap, cluster(ccode) efron nohr strata(humanrights securitycrime environment trade)

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}ratification
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}year_diff
                 {txt}id:  {res}dyad2

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-10314.734
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-9842.6835
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-9820.7638
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-9820.7596
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-9820.7596

{txt}Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}       2,221             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     2,221
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}       1,819
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      9475.5
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}8{txt})     =  {res}    667.65
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-9820.7596             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 87:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:149} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 23}{c |}{col 35}    Robust
{col 1}                   _t{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 8}solschdum_exo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.9940425{col 35}{space 2}  .109503{col 46}{space 1}   -9.08{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.208664{col 76}{space 3}-.7794205
{txt}{space 7}election_dummy {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.036063{col 35}{space 2} .0812471{col 46}{space 1}  -12.75{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.195305{col 76}{space 3}-.8768219
{txt}{space 2}number_ratified_max {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0090216{col 35}{space 2} .0009006{col 46}{space 1}  -10.02{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0107867{col 76}{space 3}-.0072564
{txt}{space 4}polity_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0539343{col 35}{space 2} .0060306{col 46}{space 1}    8.94{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0421145{col 76}{space 3}  .065754
{txt}powermilit_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -2.06093{col 35}{space 2} 1.639565{col 46}{space 1}   -1.26{col 55}{space 3}0.209{col 63}{space 4}-5.274418{col 76}{space 3} 1.152558
{txt}{space 5}openk_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.001413{col 35}{space 2} .0009743{col 46}{space 1}   -1.45{col 55}{space 3}0.147{col 63}{space 4}-.0033225{col 76}{space 3} .0004965
{txt}{space 4}NUMIGO_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0096594{col 35}{space 2} .0017853{col 46}{space 1}   -5.41{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0131584{col 76}{space 3}-.0061603
{txt}{space 15}leg_ap {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.036053{col 35}{space 2} .0784432{col 46}{space 1}   -0.46{col 55}{space 3}0.646{col 63}{space 4}-.1897988{col 76}{space 3} .1176929
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}Stratified by humanrights securitycrime environment trade
({res}est1{txt} stored)

{com}. estimates store stcox6
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab stcox6, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label
{res}
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}                              (1)   
{txt}                     analysis t~s   
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}Only ONE solschang~r{res}       -0.994***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.110{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Elections           {res}       -1.036***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.081{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Number of countrie~d{res}       -0.009***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.001{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Democracy score in~a{res}        0.054***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.006{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Power capabilities~ {res}       -2.061   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.640{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade openness in ~r{res}       -0.001   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.001{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Memberships in IGO~t{res}       -0.010***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Legislative approval{res}       -0.036   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.078{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}Observations        {res}         2221   {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}    19657.519   {txt}
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}.  
. ****** Table A4 ******
. 
. eststo clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. use "FPA Country-Treaty-Year.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. eststo: stcox solschdum_exo any_election NUMIGO number_ratified_per_year ppolity2 powermilit openk leg_ap, tvc(any_election NUMIGO number_ratified_per_year ppolity2 powermilit openk leg_ap) texp(ln(_t)) efron nohr cluster(ccode) strata(humanrights securitycrime environment trade)

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}status
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}ratyears
                 {txt}id:  {res}dyad2

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-8738.8175
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-8344.6139
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-8318.2712
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-8318.1944
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-8318.1944
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-8318.1944

{txt}Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}       2,057             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     8,263
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}       1,562
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}        8263
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}15{txt})    =  {res}    770.36
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-8318.1944             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 90:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:147} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 26}{c |}{col 38}    Robust
{col 1}                      _t{col 26}{c |}      Coef.{col 38}   Std. Err.{col 50}      z{col 58}   P>|z|{col 66}     [95% Con{col 79}f. Interval]
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}rh                       {txt}{c |}
{space 11}solschdum_exo {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.9139356{col 38}{space 2} .0855491{col 49}{space 1}  -10.68{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-1.081609{col 79}{space 3}-.7462625
{txt}{space 12}any_election {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0414149{col 38}{space 2} .1297751{col 49}{space 1}    0.32{col 58}{space 3}0.750{col 66}{space 4}-.2129397{col 79}{space 3} .2957695
{txt}{space 18}NUMIGO {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0060141{col 38}{space 2} .0038071{col 49}{space 1}    1.58{col 58}{space 3}0.114{col 66}{space 4}-.0014476{col 79}{space 3} .0134758
{txt}number_ratified_per_year {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0319865{col 38}{space 2} .0018824{col 49}{space 1}   16.99{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .0282971{col 79}{space 3} .0356759
{txt}{space 16}ppolity2 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0286783{col 38}{space 2} .0100245{col 49}{space 1}    2.86{col 58}{space 3}0.004{col 66}{space 4} .0090307{col 79}{space 3}  .048326
{txt}{space 14}powermilit {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-1.034311{col 38}{space 2} 1.803506{col 49}{space 1}   -0.57{col 58}{space 3}0.566{col 66}{space 4}-4.569118{col 79}{space 3} 2.500496
{txt}{space 19}openk {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0008718{col 38}{space 2} .0022346{col 49}{space 1}   -0.39{col 58}{space 3}0.696{col 66}{space 4}-.0052515{col 79}{space 3} .0035079
{txt}{space 18}leg_ap {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.1431457{col 38}{space 2} .1778921{col 49}{space 1}   -0.80{col 58}{space 3}0.421{col 66}{space 4}-.4918079{col 79}{space 3} .2055164
{txt}{hline 25}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}t                        {txt}{c |}
{space 12}any_election {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0383915{col 38}{space 2} .1019562{col 49}{space 1}   -0.38{col 58}{space 3}0.707{col 66}{space 4} -.238222{col 79}{space 3} .1614391
{txt}{space 18}NUMIGO {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0034934{col 38}{space 2} .0028089{col 49}{space 1}   -1.24{col 58}{space 3}0.214{col 66}{space 4}-.0089987{col 79}{space 3} .0020119
{txt}number_ratified_per_year {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0117188{col 38}{space 2}  .001418{col 49}{space 1}   -8.26{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} -.014498{col 79}{space 3}-.0089395
{txt}{space 16}ppolity2 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0295481{col 38}{space 2} .0079218{col 49}{space 1}    3.73{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .0140216{col 79}{space 3} .0450746
{txt}{space 14}powermilit {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.5899596{col 38}{space 2} .8551277{col 49}{space 1}   -0.69{col 58}{space 3}0.490{col 66}{space 4}-2.265979{col 79}{space 3}  1.08606
{txt}{space 19}openk {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0003486{col 38}{space 2} .0015903{col 49}{space 1}   -0.22{col 58}{space 3}0.826{col 66}{space 4}-.0034655{col 79}{space 3} .0027683
{txt}{space 18}leg_ap {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .2170813{col 38}{space 2} .1403664{col 49}{space 1}    1.55{col 58}{space 3}0.122{col 66}{space 4}-.0580317{col 79}{space 3} .4921943
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}Stratified by humanrights securitycrime environment trade
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: Variables in {res}t{txt} equation interacted with ln(_t).{p_end}
({res}est1{txt} stored)

{com}. estimates store stcox7
{txt}
{com}. 
. eststo: logit status solschdum_exo any_election NUMIGO number_ratified_per_year ppolity2 powermilit openk securitycrime environment trade leg_ap ratyears ratyears2 ratyears3, cluster(ccode)

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-4006.0788
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-3446.7356
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-3396.2333
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -3395.526
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-3395.5254

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}      8263
                                                  {txt}Wald chi2({res}14{txt})   = {res}    566.15
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-3395.5254                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.1524

                                {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}147{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
      status {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
solschdum_~o {c |}  {res}-1.117564   .1098786   -10.17   0.000    -1.332922   -.9022056
{txt}any_election {c |}  {res}  .019547   .0796423     0.25   0.806    -.1365491    .1756431
      {txt}NUMIGO {c |}  {res} .0013587   .0027828     0.49   0.625    -.0040955    .0068129
{txt}number_rat~r {c |}  {res} .0224762   .0012357    18.19   0.000     .0200542    .0248982
    {txt}ppolity2 {c |}  {res} .0747108   .0091661     8.15   0.000     .0567455     .092676
  {txt}powermilit {c |}  {res}-1.842346   1.029226    -1.79   0.073    -3.859592    .1749006
       {txt}openk {c |}  {res}-.0013978   .0012643    -1.11   0.269    -.0038758    .0010801
{txt}securitycr~e {c |}  {res} .1472942   .0940753     1.57   0.117      -.03709    .3316784
 {txt}environment {c |}  {res} .1658147   .1199698     1.38   0.167    -.0693217    .4009512
       {txt}trade {c |}  {res} .2554485   .1588862     1.61   0.108    -.0559626    .5668597
      {txt}leg_ap {c |}  {res} .1172345    .115152     1.02   0.309    -.1084592    .3429283
    {txt}ratyears {c |}  {res} .4273832   .1107505     3.86   0.000     .2103162    .6444502
   {txt}ratyears2 {c |}  {res}-.1052326   .0199154    -5.28   0.000     -.144266   -.0661991
   {txt}ratyears3 {c |}  {res}   .00516   .0009838     5.24   0.000     .0032318    .0070882
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res}-3.212764   .2978638   -10.79   0.000    -3.796566   -2.628962
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}
({res}est2{txt} stored)

{com}. estimates store logit8
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab stcox7 logit8, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label
{res}
{txt}{hline 52}
{txt}                              (1)             (2)   
{txt}                               _t    ratificati~)   
{txt}{hline 52}
{res}main                                                {txt}
{txt}Leader turnover     {res}       -0.914***       -1.118***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.086{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.110{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Elections           {res}        0.041           0.020   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.130{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.080{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Memberships in IGOs {res}        0.006           0.001   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.004{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.003{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Number of countrie~d{res}        0.032***        0.022***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.001{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Democracy score     {res}        0.029***        0.075***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.010{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.009{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Power capabilities  {res}       -1.034          -1.842*  {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.804{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.029{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade openness      {res}       -0.001          -0.001   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.001{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Legislative approval{res}       -0.143           0.117   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.178{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.115{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Security and crime~y{res}                        0.147   {txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.094{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Environmental treaty{res}                        0.166   {txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.120{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade treaty        {res}                        0.255   {txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.159{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Time since last st~s{res}                        0.427***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.111{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ratyears2           {res}                       -0.105***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.020{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ratyears3           {res}                        0.005***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.001{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Constant            {res}                       -3.213***{txt}
                    {res}                 {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.298{txt:)}}   {txt}
{hline 52}
{res}t                                                   {txt}
{txt}Elections           {res}       -0.038                   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.102{txt:)}}                   {txt}

{txt}Memberships in IGOs {res}       -0.003                   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.003{txt:)}}                   {txt}

{txt}Number of countrie~d{res}       -0.012***                {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.001{txt:)}}                   {txt}

{txt}Democracy score     {res}        0.030***                {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.008{txt:)}}                   {txt}

{txt}Power capabilities  {res}       -0.590                   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.855{txt:)}}                   {txt}

{txt}Trade openness      {res}       -0.000                   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}                   {txt}

{txt}Legislative approval{res}        0.217                   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.140{txt:)}}                   {txt}
{txt}{hline 52}
{txt}Observations        {res}         8263            8263   {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}    16666.389        6821.051   {txt}
{txt}{hline 52}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. 
. ****** Table A5 and Figure A1 ******
. 
. use "FPA Data.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}. 
. logit ratification i.solschdum_exo##c.polity_first_year election_dummy number_ratified_max securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1050.3237}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-869.88477}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-844.60937}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-844.14603}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-844.14521}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-844.14521}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,221
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}15{txt}){col 67}= {res}    187.47
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-844.14521{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1963

{txt}{ralign 99:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:149} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 34}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 35}{c |}{col 47}    Robust
{col 1}                     ratification{col 35}{c |}      Coef.{col 47}   Std. Err.{col 59}      z{col 67}   P>|z|{col 75}     [95% Con{col 88}f. Interval]
{hline 34}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 18}1.solschdum_exo {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-1.578434{col 47}{space 2} .3524846{col 58}{space 1}   -4.48{col 67}{space 3}0.000{col 75}{space 4}-2.269291{col 88}{space 3}-.8875766
{txt}{space 16}polity_first_year {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0969436{col 47}{space 2} .0170345{col 58}{space 1}    5.69{col 67}{space 3}0.000{col 75}{space 4} .0635566{col 88}{space 3} .1303307
{txt}{space 33} {c |}
solschdum_exo#c.polity_first_year {c |}
{space 31}1  {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0013919{col 47}{space 2} .0446843{col 58}{space 1}   -0.03{col 67}{space 3}0.975{col 75}{space 4}-.0889715{col 88}{space 3} .0861877
{txt}{space 33} {c |}
{space 19}election_dummy {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.7014845{col 47}{space 2} .1899075{col 58}{space 1}   -3.69{col 67}{space 3}0.000{col 75}{space 4}-1.073696{col 88}{space 3}-.3292727
{txt}{space 14}number_ratified_max {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0012603{col 47}{space 2} .0018568{col 58}{space 1}    0.68{col 67}{space 3}0.497{col 75}{space 4}-.0023789{col 88}{space 3} .0048995
{txt}{space 20}securitycrime {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.1164471{col 47}{space 2} .1590954{col 58}{space 1}   -0.73{col 67}{space 3}0.464{col 75}{space 4}-.4282684{col 88}{space 3} .1953742
{txt}{space 22}environment {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} 1.441298{col 47}{space 2}  .228795{col 58}{space 1}    6.30{col 67}{space 3}0.000{col 75}{space 4} .9928685{col 88}{space 3} 1.889728
{txt}{space 28}trade {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.5711113{col 47}{space 2} .1899578{col 58}{space 1}   -3.01{col 67}{space 3}0.003{col 75}{space 4}-.9434218{col 88}{space 3}-.1988009
{txt}{space 12}powermilit_first_year {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-3.248815{col 47}{space 2} 1.615488{col 58}{space 1}   -2.01{col 67}{space 3}0.044{col 75}{space 4}-6.415113{col 88}{space 3}-.0825168
{txt}{space 17}openk_first_year {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0039293{col 47}{space 2} .0019561{col 58}{space 1}   -2.01{col 67}{space 3}0.045{col 75}{space 4}-.0077631{col 88}{space 3}-.0000954
{txt}{space 16}NUMIGO_first_year {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0166332{col 47}{space 2} .0044411{col 58}{space 1}   -3.75{col 67}{space 3}0.000{col 75}{space 4}-.0253375{col 88}{space 3}-.0079288
{txt}{space 27}leg_ap {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .3339808{col 47}{space 2} .1933042{col 58}{space 1}    1.73{col 67}{space 3}0.084{col 75}{space 4}-.0448885{col 88}{space 3} .7128502
{txt}{space 26}rat_yrs {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} 1.523127{col 47}{space 2}  .505776{col 58}{space 1}    3.01{col 67}{space 3}0.003{col 75}{space 4} .5318241{col 88}{space 3}  2.51443
{txt}{space 25}rat_yrs2 {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.5978615{col 47}{space 2} .4007591{col 58}{space 1}   -1.49{col 67}{space 3}0.136{col 75}{space 4}-1.383335{col 88}{space 3}  .187612
{txt}{space 25}rat_yrs3 {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0252118{col 47}{space 2}  .063231{col 58}{space 1}    0.40{col 67}{space 3}0.690{col 75}{space 4}-.0987187{col 88}{space 3} .1491422
{txt}{space 28}_cons {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} 2.791588{col 47}{space 2} .5222122{col 58}{space 1}    5.35{col 67}{space 3}0.000{col 75}{space 4} 1.768071{col 88}{space 3} 3.815105
{txt}{hline 34}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}Measures of Fit for {res}logit{txt} of {res}ratification

{txt}Log-Lik Intercept Only:{col 28}{res}  -1050.324{col 42}{txt}Log-Lik Full Model:{col 69}{res}   -844.145
{txt}D(2205):{col 28}{res}   1688.290{col 42}{txt}LR(15):{col 69}{res}    412.357
{txt}{col 28}{res}{col 42}{txt}Prob > LR:{col 69}{res}      0.000
{txt}McFadden's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.196{col 42}{txt}McFadden's Adj R2:{col 69}{res}      0.181
{txt}ML (Cox-Snell) R2:{col 28}{res}      0.169{col 42}{txt}Cragg-Uhler(Nagelkerke) R2:{col 69}{res}      0.277
{txt}McKelvey & Zavoina's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.347{col 42}{txt}Efron's R2:{col 69}{res}      0.200
{txt}Variance of y*:{col 28}{res}      5.036{col 42}{txt}Variance of error:{col 69}{res}      3.290
{txt}Count R2:{col 28}{res}      0.838{col 42}{txt}Adj Count R2:{col 69}{res}      0.107
{txt}AIC:{col 28}{res}      0.775{col 42}{txt}AIC*n:{col 69}{res}   1720.290
{txt}BIC:{col 28}{res} -15302.806{col 42}{txt}BIC':{col 69}{res}   -296.771
{txt}BIC used by Stata:{col 28}{res}   1811.582{col 42}{txt}AIC used by Stata:{col 69}{res}   1720.290
{txt}
{com}. 
. margins, dydx(solschdum_exo) at(polity_first_year=(-10(1)10)) vsquish
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,221
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Pr(ratification), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:1.solschdum_exo}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-10}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-9}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-7}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:11._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:12._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:13._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:14._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:15._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:16._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:17._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:18._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}7}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:19._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:20._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}9}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:21._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:polity_fir~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}10}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}1.solschdu~o {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3007023{col 26}{space 2} .1306339{col 37}{space 1}   -2.30{col 46}{space 3}0.021{col 54}{space 4}  -.55674{col 67}{space 3}-.0446646
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3009159{col 26}{space 2} .1252581{col 37}{space 1}   -2.40{col 46}{space 3}0.016{col 54}{space 4}-.5464173{col 67}{space 3}-.0554145
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3004233{col 26}{space 2}  .119533{col 37}{space 1}   -2.51{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4}-.5347036{col 67}{space 3}-.0661429
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2992206{col 26}{space 2} .1134967{col 37}{space 1}   -2.64{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4}-.5216701{col 67}{space 3}-.0767711
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2973095{col 26}{space 2} .1071946{col 37}{space 1}   -2.77{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4} -.507407{col 67}{space 3}-.0872121
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2946976{col 26}{space 2} .1006794{col 37}{space 1}   -2.93{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-.4920256{col 67}{space 3}-.0973695
{txt}{space 10}7  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.291398{col 26}{space 2} .0940133{col 37}{space 1}   -3.10{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-.4756607{col 67}{space 3}-.1071352
{txt}{space 10}8  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2874297{col 26}{space 2} .0872689{col 37}{space 1}   -3.29{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.4584736{col 67}{space 3}-.1163859
{txt}{space 10}9  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2828175{col 26}{space 2} .0805315{col 37}{space 1}   -3.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4406564{col 67}{space 3}-.1249786
{txt}{space 9}10  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2775914{col 26}{space 2} .0739025{col 37}{space 1}   -3.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4224377{col 67}{space 3}-.1327452
{txt}{space 9}11  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2717866{col 26}{space 2} .0675023{col 37}{space 1}   -4.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4040888{col 67}{space 3}-.1394845
{txt}{space 9}12  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2654429{col 26}{space 2}  .061475{col 37}{space 1}   -4.32{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3859317{col 67}{space 3}-.1449541
{txt}{space 9}13  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2586042{col 26}{space 2} .0559906{col 37}{space 1}   -4.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3683439{col 67}{space 3}-.1488646
{txt}{space 9}14  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2513182{col 26}{space 2} .0512438{col 37}{space 1}   -4.90{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3517542{col 67}{space 3}-.1508821
{txt}{space 9}15  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2436352{col 26}{space 2} .0474403{col 37}{space 1}   -5.14{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3366164{col 67}{space 3} -.150654
{txt}{space 9}16  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2356081{col 26}{space 2} .0447651{col 37}{space 1}   -5.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3233462{col 67}{space 3}  -.14787
{txt}{space 9}17  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.227291{col 26}{space 2} .0433328{col 37}{space 1}   -5.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3122216{col 67}{space 3}-.1423603
{txt}{space 9}18  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.218739{col 26}{space 2} .0431382{col 37}{space 1}   -5.07{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3032882{col 67}{space 3}-.1341897
{txt}{space 9}19  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2100071{col 26}{space 2} .0440446{col 37}{space 1}   -4.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2963329{col 67}{space 3}-.1236813
{txt}{space 9}20  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2011496{col 26}{space 2} .0458196{col 37}{space 1}   -4.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2909543{col 67}{space 3}-.1113449
{txt}{space 9}21  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1922197{col 26}{space 2} .0481957{col 37}{space 1}   -3.99{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2866816{col 67}{space 3}-.0977577
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, level(90) recast(line) recastci(rline) name(graph1, replace) addplot (histogram polity_first_year, xlabel(-10(1)10) yaxis(2) blcolor(gray) bfcolor(none)) legend(off)

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: polity_first_year{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. ****** Table A6 ******
. 
. eststo clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}. 
. qui tab ccode, gen(fes)
{txt}
{com}. eststo: logit ratification solschdum_exo election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3 fes*, cluster(ccode)

{txt}note: fes5 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes5 dropped and 3 obs not used

note: fes8 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes8 dropped and 7 obs not used

note: fes19 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes19 dropped and 9 obs not used

note: fes20 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes20 dropped and 19 obs not used

note: fes28 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes28 dropped and 14 obs not used

note: fes31 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes31 dropped and 10 obs not used

note: fes51 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes51 dropped and 20 obs not used

note: fes57 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes57 dropped and 7 obs not used

note: fes58 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes58 dropped and 9 obs not used

note: fes59 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes59 dropped and 13 obs not used

note: fes61 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes61 dropped and 1 obs not used

note: fes64 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes64 dropped and 16 obs not used

note: fes65 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes65 dropped and 8 obs not used

note: fes69 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes69 dropped and 6 obs not used

note: fes70 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes70 dropped and 4 obs not used

note: fes71 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes71 dropped and 8 obs not used

note: fes73 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes73 dropped and 11 obs not used

note: fes79 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes79 dropped and 14 obs not used

note: fes84 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes84 dropped and 5 obs not used

note: fes87 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes87 dropped and 18 obs not used

note: fes90 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes90 dropped and 9 obs not used

note: fes91 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes91 dropped and 12 obs not used

note: fes103 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes103 dropped and 13 obs not used

note: fes111 != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      fes111 dropped and 2 obs not used

note: fes122 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes122 dropped and 12 obs not used

note: fes126 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes126 dropped and 10 obs not used

note: fes131 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes131 dropped and 10 obs not used

note: fes148 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes148 dropped and 5 obs not used

note: fes154 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes154 dropped and 13 obs not used

note: fes161 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes161 dropped and 11 obs not used

note: fes174 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes174 dropped and 10 obs not used

note: fes180 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes180 dropped and 1 obs not used

note: fes183 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      fes183 dropped and 8 obs not used

note: fes3 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes9 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes10 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes11 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes12 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes13 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes14 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes15 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes17 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes27 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes40 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes42 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes43 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes46 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes48 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes54 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes55 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes56 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes60 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes67 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes81 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes82 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes83 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes105 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes127 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes147 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes155 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes162 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes164 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes169 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes171 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes172 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes175 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes179 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes181 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes182 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes184 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes185 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes186 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes187 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes188 dropped because of collinearity
note: fes189 dropped because of collinearity
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-978.54955
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -698.6681
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-641.53384
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-632.33699
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.86458
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.85193
{txt}Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.84803
{txt}Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -631.8466
{txt}Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.84608
{txt}Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.84588
{txt}Iteration 10:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.84581
{txt}Iteration 11:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.84579
{txt}Iteration 12:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.84578
{txt}Iteration 13:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.84577
{txt}Iteration 14:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.84577
{txt}Iteration 15:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.84577
{txt}Iteration 16:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.84577
{txt}Iteration 17:  log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.84577

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}      1903
                                                  {txt}{help j_robustsingular:Wald chi2(11)}   = {res}         .
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}         .
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.84577                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.3543

                                {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}116{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
ratification {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
solschdum_~o {c |}  {res} -2.66806   .4087882    -6.53   0.000     -3.46927    -1.86685
{txt}election_d~y {c |}  {res}-1.358818   .2588564    -5.25   0.000    -1.866167   -.8514689
{txt}number_rat~x {c |}  {res} .0059135   .0024342     2.43   0.015     .0011426    .0106844
{txt}polity_fir~r {c |}  {res}-.0186675    .076065    -0.25   0.806    -.1677521    .1304171
{txt}securitycr~e {c |}  {res}-.1851488   .2022363    -0.92   0.360    -.5815247    .2112271
 {txt}environment {c |}  {res} 1.348434   .2909309     4.63   0.000     .7782199    1.918648
       {txt}trade {c |}  {res}-.9763734   .2793203    -3.50   0.000    -1.523831   -.4289157
{txt}powermilit~r {c |}  {res}-4.696143   9.699528    -0.48   0.628    -23.70687    14.31458
{txt}openk_firs~r {c |}  {res}-.0352274   .0100366    -3.51   0.000    -.0548988    -.015556
{txt}NUMIGO_fir~r {c |}  {res}-.1771015    .036591    -4.84   0.000    -.2488186   -.1053843
      {txt}leg_ap {c |}  {res}-1.647544   4.379602    -0.38   0.707    -10.23141    6.936318
     {txt}rat_yrs {c |}  {res} 8.774549   .3563839    24.62   0.000     8.076049    9.473049
    {txt}rat_yrs2 {c |}  {res}-10.87298          .        .       .            .           .
    {txt}rat_yrs3 {c |}  {res} 3.347757   .1067633    31.36   0.000     3.138505    3.557009
        {txt}fes1 {c |}  {res} .3990516    4.10472     0.10   0.923    -7.646051    8.444154
        {txt}fes2 {c |}  {res}-1.737022   3.891225    -0.45   0.655    -9.363682    5.889639
        {txt}fes4 {c |}  {res}-9.152294   1.949789    -4.69   0.000    -12.97381   -5.330777
        {txt}fes6 {c |}  {res}-3.877364   1.410547    -2.75   0.006    -6.641986   -1.112742
        {txt}fes7 {c |}  {res}-6.801864   3.187644    -2.13   0.033    -13.04953   -.5541957
       {txt}fes16 {c |}  {res}-2.188998   .7891159    -2.77   0.006    -3.735637   -.6423592
       {txt}fes18 {c |}  {res}-2.778231    1.19792    -2.32   0.020    -5.126111   -.4303505
       {txt}fes21 {c |}  {res}-2.648719    1.21983    -2.17   0.030    -5.039541   -.2578959
       {txt}fes22 {c |}  {res} -.658772   1.287521    -0.51   0.609    -3.182267    1.864723
       {txt}fes23 {c |}  {res} .5382177   1.661535     0.32   0.746    -2.718332    3.794767
       {txt}fes24 {c |}  {res}-.0145919   .7594777    -0.02   0.985    -1.503141    1.473957
       {txt}fes25 {c |}  {res}-.8950313   .7056346    -1.27   0.205     -2.27805    .4879871
       {txt}fes26 {c |}  {res}-5.886112   2.167442    -2.72   0.007    -10.13422   -1.638005
       {txt}fes29 {c |}  {res} -1.34523   .8680647    -1.55   0.121    -3.046606    .3561453
       {txt}fes30 {c |}  {res}-.9195201   .7116966    -1.29   0.196     -2.31442    .4753796
       {txt}fes32 {c |}  {res} -4.09612   1.726804    -2.37   0.018    -7.480594   -.7116453
       {txt}fes33 {c |}  {res}-2.872915   .9830314    -2.92   0.003    -4.799621   -.9462088
       {txt}fes34 {c |}  {res}-1.585233   .8862321    -1.79   0.074    -3.322216    .1517497
       {txt}fes35 {c |}  {res}-2.706055   1.176673    -2.30   0.021    -5.012292   -.3998184
       {txt}fes36 {c |}  {res}-.2766187    4.30107    -0.06   0.949    -8.706561    8.153324
       {txt}fes37 {c |}  {res}-2.505813   1.575718    -1.59   0.112    -5.594164    .5825375
       {txt}fes38 {c |}  {res} 4.931383    .686651     7.18   0.000     3.585571    6.277194
       {txt}fes39 {c |}  {res} 6.627269   1.029494     6.44   0.000     4.609497    8.645041
       {txt}fes41 {c |}  {res} 4.549775    .688007     6.61   0.000     3.201306    5.898244
       {txt}fes44 {c |}  {res}-.5790083   .7344509    -0.79   0.430    -2.018506    .8604891
       {txt}fes45 {c |}  {res}   3.9091   .3464288    11.28   0.000     3.230112    4.588088
       {txt}fes47 {c |}  {res} .2000551   .4924466     0.41   0.685    -.7651225    1.165233
       {txt}fes49 {c |}  {res}-2.690093   .9824322    -2.74   0.006    -4.615625   -.7645617
       {txt}fes50 {c |}  {res} 1.220451   .7877333     1.55   0.121    -.3234776     2.76438
       {txt}fes52 {c |}  {res}-4.981476    3.06426    -1.63   0.104    -10.98731    1.024363
       {txt}fes53 {c |}  {res}-.3382443   1.802223    -0.19   0.851    -3.870536    3.194047
       {txt}fes62 {c |}  {res}-5.268609   1.928091    -2.73   0.006    -9.047597    -1.48962
       {txt}fes63 {c |}  {res}-1.637557   .6418909    -2.55   0.011    -2.895641   -.3794743
       {txt}fes66 {c |}  {res}-4.725885   2.194707    -2.15   0.031    -9.027432   -.4243385
       {txt}fes68 {c |}  {res}-4.002488   1.814992    -2.21   0.027    -7.559807   -.4451693
       {txt}fes72 {c |}  {res}-5.303653   2.043157    -2.60   0.009    -9.308167   -1.299138
       {txt}fes74 {c |}  {res}-10.75036   2.499019    -4.30   0.000    -15.64835   -5.852372
       {txt}fes75 {c |}  {res}-7.292489    2.34754    -3.11   0.002    -11.89358   -2.691394
       {txt}fes76 {c |}  {res}-7.903638    2.64171    -2.99   0.003    -13.08129   -2.725981
       {txt}fes77 {c |}  {res} .1962881   .4494686     0.44   0.662    -.6846542     1.07723
       {txt}fes78 {c |}  {res} 1.176156   4.161291     0.28   0.777    -6.979824    9.332136
       {txt}fes80 {c |}  {res} 3.838409   .5105659     7.52   0.000     2.837719      4.8391
       {txt}fes85 {c |}  {res} -7.79845   2.910906    -2.68   0.007    -13.50372   -2.093178
       {txt}fes86 {c |}  {res} -8.51141   3.185972    -2.67   0.008     -14.7558   -2.267019
       {txt}fes88 {c |}  {res}-2.007974   1.008226    -1.99   0.046     -3.98406   -.0318882
       {txt}fes89 {c |}  {res}-2.689505    1.12489    -2.39   0.017     -4.89425   -.4847602
       {txt}fes92 {c |}  {res}-2.938199   1.349776    -2.18   0.029    -5.583712   -.2926862
       {txt}fes93 {c |}  {res}-7.971695   1.732759    -4.60   0.000    -11.36784   -4.575549
       {txt}fes94 {c |}  {res}-5.061294   1.443248    -3.51   0.000    -7.890008   -2.232579
       {txt}fes95 {c |}  {res}-7.206744   2.068439    -3.48   0.000    -11.26081   -3.152679
       {txt}fes96 {c |}  {res}-8.735728   1.790955    -4.88   0.000    -12.24593   -5.225521
       {txt}fes97 {c |}  {res} -3.33699   1.571009    -2.12   0.034    -6.416111    -.257868
       {txt}fes98 {c |}  {res}-5.306707   1.570193    -3.38   0.001    -8.384229   -2.229186
       {txt}fes99 {c |}  {res}-4.014029   1.267743    -3.17   0.002     -6.49876   -1.529299
      {txt}fes100 {c |}  {res}-4.371052   1.193684    -3.66   0.000    -6.710629   -2.031474
      {txt}fes101 {c |}  {res}-4.051091   1.642089    -2.47   0.014    -7.269527    -.832656
      {txt}fes102 {c |}  {res}-5.913467    1.63613    -3.61   0.000    -9.120222   -2.706711
      {txt}fes104 {c |}  {res}-5.235029   1.966469    -2.66   0.008    -9.089237    -1.38082
      {txt}fes106 {c |}  {res}-8.360283   1.864686    -4.48   0.000      -12.015   -4.705565
      {txt}fes107 {c |}  {res}-5.828151   3.567097    -1.63   0.102    -12.81953    1.163231
      {txt}fes108 {c |}  {res}-5.730564   1.631384    -3.51   0.000    -8.928019    -2.53311
      {txt}fes109 {c |}  {res}-10.21503   2.149675    -4.75   0.000    -14.42832   -6.001745
      {txt}fes110 {c |}  {res}-8.985527   2.433451    -3.69   0.000      -13.755    -4.21605
      {txt}fes112 {c |}  {res}-8.395881   2.725542    -3.08   0.002    -13.73785   -3.053916
      {txt}fes113 {c |}  {res}-14.84878   3.119977    -4.76   0.000    -20.96382   -8.733733
      {txt}fes114 {c |}  {res}-9.789974   2.628126    -3.73   0.000    -14.94101   -4.638941
      {txt}fes115 {c |}  {res}-8.785115    1.86925    -4.70   0.000    -12.44878   -5.121452
      {txt}fes116 {c |}  {res}-11.81503   3.742749    -3.16   0.002    -19.15068   -4.479373
      {txt}fes117 {c |}  {res}-6.836759   2.335016    -2.93   0.003    -11.41331   -2.260213
      {txt}fes118 {c |}  {res}-10.63745   3.286459    -3.24   0.001     -17.0788   -4.196112
      {txt}fes119 {c |}  {res}-6.786331   1.606984    -4.22   0.000    -9.935963   -3.636699
      {txt}fes120 {c |}  {res}-9.070342   2.446213    -3.71   0.000    -13.86483   -4.275852
      {txt}fes121 {c |}  {res}-6.816057   2.233294    -3.05   0.002    -11.19323   -2.438881
      {txt}fes123 {c |}  {res}-9.703128   2.173624    -4.46   0.000    -13.96335   -5.442902
      {txt}fes124 {c |}  {res}-5.135889   1.757299    -2.92   0.003    -8.580133   -1.691646
      {txt}fes125 {c |}  {res}-8.920851   2.244668    -3.97   0.000    -13.32032   -4.521383
      {txt}fes128 {c |}  {res}-5.176282   1.532351    -3.38   0.001    -8.179634   -2.172931
      {txt}fes129 {c |}  {res}-2.940184   1.397793    -2.10   0.035    -5.679808     -.20056
      {txt}fes130 {c |}  {res}-.3230449   1.452377    -0.22   0.824    -3.169652    2.523562
      {txt}fes132 {c |}  {res}-7.499108   1.770817    -4.23   0.000    -10.96985   -4.028372
      {txt}fes133 {c |}  {res}-8.017051   2.060824    -3.89   0.000    -12.05619   -3.977911
      {txt}fes134 {c |}  {res}-3.494284   1.040841    -3.36   0.001    -5.534296   -1.454272
      {txt}fes135 {c |}  {res} -4.86374    3.90815    -1.24   0.213    -12.52357    2.796093
      {txt}fes136 {c |}  {res}-9.581481   2.247007    -4.26   0.000    -13.98553   -5.177428
      {txt}fes137 {c |}  {res}-7.692721   1.839534    -4.18   0.000    -11.29814   -4.087301
      {txt}fes138 {c |}  {res}-5.264802   2.062365    -2.55   0.011    -9.306964    -1.22264
      {txt}fes139 {c |}  {res}-8.530648   3.242962    -2.63   0.009    -14.88674   -2.174559
      {txt}fes140 {c |}  {res}-10.54592   3.295157    -3.20   0.001    -17.00431   -4.087528
      {txt}fes141 {c |}  {res}-11.01019   2.379571    -4.63   0.000    -15.67406   -6.346318
      {txt}fes142 {c |}  {res}-7.043814   2.299701    -3.06   0.002    -11.55115   -2.536483
      {txt}fes143 {c |}  {res}-6.820212   2.838952    -2.40   0.016    -12.38446   -1.255968
      {txt}fes144 {c |}  {res}  -7.6465   2.516203    -3.04   0.002    -12.57817   -2.714834
      {txt}fes145 {c |}  {res} -7.44982   2.685356    -2.77   0.006    -12.71302   -2.186619
      {txt}fes146 {c |}  {res}-11.23706   3.012199    -3.73   0.000    -17.14086   -5.333257
      {txt}fes149 {c |}  {res}-10.49851   2.855955    -3.68   0.000    -16.09608   -4.900939
      {txt}fes150 {c |}  {res}-7.561121   2.445526    -3.09   0.002    -12.35426   -2.767978
      {txt}fes151 {c |}  {res}-11.32972   2.756799    -4.11   0.000    -16.73295   -5.926498
      {txt}fes152 {c |}  {res}-7.645511   2.597142    -2.94   0.003    -12.73582   -2.555205
      {txt}fes153 {c |}  {res}-7.353844   2.631829    -2.79   0.005    -12.51213   -2.195554
      {txt}fes156 {c |}  {res}-5.820402   1.470701    -3.96   0.000    -8.702923   -2.937881
      {txt}fes157 {c |}  {res}-5.066054   1.068922    -4.74   0.000    -7.161101   -2.971006
      {txt}fes158 {c |}  {res} -2.75637   .9929751    -2.78   0.006    -4.702566    -.810175
      {txt}fes159 {c |}  {res}-16.55241   3.112193    -5.32   0.000    -22.65219   -10.45262
      {txt}fes160 {c |}  {res}-9.663112   3.747029    -2.58   0.010    -17.00715    -2.31907
      {txt}fes163 {c |}  {res}-5.461835   1.461259    -3.74   0.000     -8.32585    -2.59782
      {txt}fes165 {c |}  {res}-12.75616   3.462962    -3.68   0.000    -19.54344   -5.968878
      {txt}fes166 {c |}  {res}-2.921255   1.750028    -1.67   0.095    -6.351246    .5087366
      {txt}fes167 {c |}  {res}-9.182188   2.665182    -3.45   0.001    -14.40585   -3.958526
      {txt}fes168 {c |}  {res}-12.38435   2.852192    -4.34   0.000    -17.97454   -6.794155
      {txt}fes170 {c |}  {res}-.7044577   2.089361    -0.34   0.736     -4.79953    3.390615
      {txt}fes173 {c |}  {res}-3.513047   1.597957    -2.20   0.028    -6.644985   -.3811082
      {txt}fes176 {c |}  {res}-4.133886   4.010253    -1.03   0.303    -11.99384    3.726064
      {txt}fes177 {c |}  {res}-9.714234   2.842902    -3.42   0.001    -15.28622   -4.142249
      {txt}fes178 {c |}  {res}-7.956629   3.628963    -2.19   0.028    -15.06927   -.8439911
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 23.14309   4.101504     5.64   0.000     15.10429    31.18189
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}
Note: 0 failures and 3 successes completely determined.
({res}est1{txt} stored)

{com}. estimates store logit10
{txt}
{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}Measures of Fit for {res}logit{txt} of {res}ratification

{txt}Log-Lik Intercept Only:{col 28}{res}   -978.550{col 42}{txt}Log-Lik Full Model:{col 69}{res}   -631.846
{txt}D(1775):{col 28}{res}   1263.692{col 42}{txt}LR(11):{col 69}{res}    693.408
{txt}{col 28}{res}{col 42}{txt}Prob > LR:{col 69}{res}      0.000
{txt}McFadden's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.354{col 42}{txt}McFadden's Adj R2:{col 69}{res}      0.223
{txt}ML (Cox-Snell) R2:{col 28}{res}      0.305{col 42}{txt}Cragg-Uhler(Nagelkerke) R2:{col 69}{res}      0.475
{txt}McKelvey & Zavoina's R2:{col 28}{res}      0.977{col 42}{txt}Efron's R2:{col 69}{res}      0.387
{txt}Variance of y*:{col 28}{res}    141.443{col 42}{txt}Variance of error:{col 69}{res}      3.290
{txt}Count R2:{col 28}{res}      0.857{col 42}{txt}Adj Count R2:{col 69}{res}      0.320
{txt}AIC:{col 28}{res}      0.799{col 42}{txt}AIC*n:{col 69}{res}   1519.692
{txt}BIC:{col 28}{res} -12139.665{col 42}{txt}BIC':{col 69}{res}   -610.345
{txt}BIC used by Stata:{col 28}{res}   1354.306{col 42}{txt}AIC used by Stata:{col 69}{res}   1287.692
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab logit10, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label
{res}
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}                              (1)   
{txt}                     Ratification   
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}Only ONE solschang~r{res}       -2.668***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.409{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Elections           {res}       -1.359***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.259{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Number of countrie~d{res}        0.006** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.002{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Democracy score in~a{res}       -0.019   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.076{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Security and crime~y{res}       -0.185   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.202{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Environmental treaty{res}        1.348***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.291{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade treaty        {res}       -0.976***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.279{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Power capabilities~ {res}       -4.696   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}9.700{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Trade openness in ~r{res}       -0.035***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.010{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Memberships in IGO~t{res}       -0.177***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.037{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Legislative approval{res}       -1.648   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}4.380{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Time since last ra~n{res}        8.775***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.356{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}rat_yrs2            {res}      -10.873   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.000{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}rat_yrs3            {res}        3.348***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.107{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==     2.0000  {res}        0.399   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}4.105{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==    20.0000  {res}       -1.737   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.891{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==    40.0000  {res}       -9.152***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.950{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==    42.0000  {res}       -3.877***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.411{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==    51.0000  {res}       -6.802** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.188{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==    70.0000  {res}       -2.189***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.789{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==    90.0000  {res}       -2.778** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.198{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==    93.0000  {res}       -2.649** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.220{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==    94.0000  {res}       -0.659   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.288{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==    95.0000  {res}        0.538   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.662{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   100.0000  {res}       -0.015   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.759{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   101.0000  {res}       -0.895   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.706{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   110.0000  {res}       -5.886***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.167{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   135.0000  {res}       -1.345   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.868{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   140.0000  {res}       -0.920   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.712{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   150.0000  {res}       -4.096** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.727{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   155.0000  {res}       -2.873***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.983{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   160.0000  {res}       -1.585*  {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.886{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   165.0000  {res}       -2.706** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.177{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   200.0000  {res}       -0.277   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}4.301{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   205.0000  {res}       -2.506   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.576{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   210.0000  {res}        4.931***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.687{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   211.0000  {res}        6.627***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.029{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   220.0000  {res}        4.550***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.688{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   225.0000  {res}       -0.579   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.734{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   230.0000  {res}        3.909***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.346{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   235.0000  {res}        0.200   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.492{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   290.0000  {res}       -2.690***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.982{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   305.0000  {res}        1.220   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.788{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   316.0000  {res}       -4.981   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.064{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   317.0000  {res}       -0.338   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.802{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   349.0000  {res}       -5.269***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.928{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   350.0000  {res}       -1.638** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.642{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   359.0000  {res}       -4.726** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.195{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   365.0000  {res}       -4.002** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.815{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   369.0000  {res}       -5.304***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.043{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   371.0000  {res}      -10.750***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.499{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   372.0000  {res}       -7.292***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.348{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   373.0000  {res}       -7.904***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.642{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   375.0000  {res}        0.196   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.449{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   380.0000  {res}        1.176   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}4.161{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   390.0000  {res}        3.838***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.511{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   411.0000  {res}       -7.798***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.911{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   420.0000  {res}       -8.511***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.186{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   433.0000  {res}       -2.008** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.008{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   434.0000  {res}       -2.690** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.125{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   437.0000  {res}       -2.938** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.350{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   438.0000  {res}       -7.972***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.733{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   439.0000  {res}       -5.061***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.443{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   450.0000  {res}       -7.207***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.068{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   451.0000  {res}       -8.736***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.791{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   452.0000  {res}       -3.337** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.571{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   461.0000  {res}       -5.307***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.570{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   471.0000  {res}       -4.014***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.268{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   475.0000  {res}       -4.371***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.194{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   481.0000  {res}       -4.051** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.642{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   482.0000  {res}       -5.913***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.636{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   484.0000  {res}       -5.235***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.966{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   500.0000  {res}       -8.360***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.865{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   501.0000  {res}       -5.828   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.567{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   510.0000  {res}       -5.731***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.631{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   516.0000  {res}      -10.215***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.150{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   517.0000  {res}       -8.986***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.433{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   522.0000  {res}       -8.396***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.726{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   531.0000  {res}      -14.849***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.120{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   540.0000  {res}       -9.790***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.628{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   541.0000  {res}       -8.785***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.869{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   551.0000  {res}      -11.815***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.743{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   552.0000  {res}       -6.837***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.335{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   553.0000  {res}      -10.637***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.286{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   560.0000  {res}       -6.786***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.607{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   565.0000  {res}       -9.070***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.446{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   570.0000  {res}       -6.816***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.233{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   572.0000  {res}       -9.703***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.174{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   580.0000  {res}       -5.136***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.757{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   581.0000  {res}       -8.921***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.245{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   600.0000  {res}       -5.176***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.532{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   615.0000  {res}       -2.940** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.398{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   616.0000  {res}       -0.323   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.452{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   625.0000  {res}       -7.499***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.771{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   630.0000  {res}       -8.017***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.061{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   640.0000  {res}       -3.494***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.041{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   651.0000  {res}       -4.864   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.908{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   652.0000  {res}       -9.581***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.247{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   660.0000  {res}       -7.693***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.840{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   663.0000  {res}       -5.265** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.062{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   666.0000  {res}       -8.531***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.243{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   670.0000  {res}      -10.546***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.295{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   679.0000  {res}      -11.010***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.380{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   690.0000  {res}       -7.044***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.300{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   692.0000  {res}       -6.820** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.839{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   694.0000  {res}       -7.646***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.516{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   696.0000  {res}       -7.450***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.685{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   698.0000  {res}      -11.237***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.012{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   702.0000  {res}      -10.499***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.856{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   703.0000  {res}       -7.561***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.446{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   704.0000  {res}      -11.330***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.757{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   705.0000  {res}       -7.646***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.597{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   710.0000  {res}       -7.354***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.632{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   732.0000  {res}       -5.820***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.471{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   740.0000  {res}       -5.066***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.069{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   750.0000  {res}       -2.756***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.993{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   760.0000  {res}      -16.552***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.112{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   770.0000  {res}       -9.663***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.747{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   780.0000  {res}       -5.462***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.461{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   790.0000  {res}      -12.756***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.463{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   800.0000  {res}       -2.921*  {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.750{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   811.0000  {res}       -9.182***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.665{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   812.0000  {res}      -12.384***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.852{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   820.0000  {res}       -0.704   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.089{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   840.0000  {res}       -3.513** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.598{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   900.0000  {res}       -4.134   {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}4.010{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   910.0000  {res}       -9.714***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.843{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ccode==   920.0000  {res}       -7.957** {txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}3.629{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Constant            {res}       23.143***{txt}
                    {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}4.102{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}Observations        {res}         1903   {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}     1287.692   {txt}
{txt}{hline 36}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. 
. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. ****** Figure A2 ******
. 
. logit ratification solschdum_exo rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1307.8759}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1227.9283}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1220.7869}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1220.7735}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1220.7735}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,670
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}4{txt}){col 67}= {res}     71.18
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1220.7735{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0666

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:189} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1} ratification{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
solschdum_exo {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -1.24435{col 27}{space 2} .2222358{col 38}{space 1}   -5.60{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.679924{col 68}{space 3}-.8087761
{txt}{space 6}rat_yrs {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 1.531448{col 27}{space 2} .4109571{col 38}{space 1}    3.73{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .7259868{col 68}{space 3} 2.336909
{txt}{space 5}rat_yrs2 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.6650368{col 27}{space 2} .3102208{col 38}{space 1}   -2.14{col 47}{space 3}0.032{col 55}{space 4}-1.273058{col 68}{space 3}-.0570151
{txt}{space 5}rat_yrs3 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .044717{col 27}{space 2} .0479917{col 38}{space 1}    0.93{col 47}{space 3}0.351{col 55}{space 4}-.0493449{col 68}{space 3} .1387789
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 1.443524{col 27}{space 2} .1012298{col 38}{space 1}   14.26{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} 1.245117{col 68}{space 3} 1.641931
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. predict phat if e(sample)
{txt}(option {bf:pr} assumed; Pr(ratification))

{com}. logit ratification election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1050.3237}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-912.56073}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-895.83099}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-895.60197}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-895.60171}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-895.60171}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,221
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}13{txt}){col 67}= {res}    182.50
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-895.60171{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1473

{txt}{ralign 87:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:149} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 23}{c |}{col 35}    Robust
{col 1}         ratification{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}election_dummy {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.012808{col 35}{space 2} .1793615{col 46}{space 1}   -5.65{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -1.36435{col 76}{space 3}-.6612654
{txt}{space 2}number_ratified_max {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0003931{col 35}{space 2} .0017978{col 46}{space 1}   -0.22{col 55}{space 3}0.827{col 63}{space 4}-.0039167{col 76}{space 3} .0031305
{txt}{space 4}polity_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0688018{col 35}{space 2} .0134837{col 46}{space 1}    5.10{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0423743{col 76}{space 3} .0952293
{txt}{space 8}securitycrime {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1222018{col 35}{space 2} .1571598{col 46}{space 1}   -0.78{col 55}{space 3}0.437{col 63}{space 4}-.4302293{col 76}{space 3} .1858257
{txt}{space 10}environment {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.416469{col 35}{space 2} .2167283{col 46}{space 1}    6.54{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .9916891{col 76}{space 3} 1.841248
{txt}{space 16}trade {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.7668339{col 35}{space 2} .1820819{col 46}{space 1}   -4.21{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.123708{col 76}{space 3}-.4099599
{txt}powermilit_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-3.360651{col 35}{space 2} 1.319174{col 46}{space 1}   -2.55{col 55}{space 3}0.011{col 63}{space 4}-5.946185{col 76}{space 3}-.7751163
{txt}{space 5}openk_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0029286{col 35}{space 2}  .001811{col 46}{space 1}   -1.62{col 55}{space 3}0.106{col 63}{space 4} -.006478{col 76}{space 3} .0006209
{txt}{space 4}NUMIGO_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0143918{col 35}{space 2} .0039506{col 46}{space 1}   -3.64{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0221348{col 76}{space 3}-.0066488
{txt}{space 15}leg_ap {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3707074{col 35}{space 2} .1826674{col 46}{space 1}    2.03{col 55}{space 3}0.042{col 63}{space 4} .0126858{col 76}{space 3}  .728729
{txt}{space 14}rat_yrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.701374{col 35}{space 2} .4869749{col 46}{space 1}    3.49{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .7469205{col 76}{space 3} 2.655827
{txt}{space 13}rat_yrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.7055163{col 35}{space 2} .3866949{col 46}{space 1}   -1.82{col 55}{space 3}0.068{col 63}{space 4}-1.463424{col 76}{space 3} .0523917
{txt}{space 13}rat_yrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  .041246{col 35}{space 2} .0597668{col 46}{space 1}    0.69{col 55}{space 3}0.490{col 63}{space 4}-.0758948{col 76}{space 3} .1583869
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.669813{col 35}{space 2} .4677495{col 46}{space 1}    5.71{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 1.753041{col 76}{space 3} 3.586585
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. predict phat2 if e(sample)
{txt}(option {bf:pr} assumed; Pr(ratification))
(449 missing values generated)

{com}. logit ratification solschdum_exo election_dummy number_ratified_max polity_first_year securitycrime environment trade powermilit_first_year openk_first_year NUMIGO_first_year leg_ap rat_yrs rat_yrs2 rat_yrs3, cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1050.3237}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-869.85495}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-844.60766}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-844.14695}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-844.14614}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-844.14614}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,221
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}14{txt}){col 67}= {res}    184.79
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-844.14614{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1963

{txt}{ralign 87:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:149} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 23}{c |}{col 35}    Robust
{col 1}         ratification{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 8}solschdum_exo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.587899{col 35}{space 2} .2776192{col 46}{space 1}   -5.72{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.132023{col 76}{space 3}-1.043776
{txt}{space 7}election_dummy {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.7013555{col 35}{space 2} .1902006{col 46}{space 1}   -3.69{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.074142{col 76}{space 3}-.3285691
{txt}{space 2}number_ratified_max {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0012635{col 35}{space 2} .0018558{col 46}{space 1}    0.68{col 55}{space 3}0.496{col 63}{space 4}-.0023738{col 76}{space 3} .0049008
{txt}{space 4}polity_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0968387{col 35}{space 2} .0161647{col 46}{space 1}    5.99{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0651564{col 76}{space 3} .1285211
{txt}{space 8}securitycrime {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1163922{col 35}{space 2} .1591122{col 46}{space 1}   -0.73{col 55}{space 3}0.464{col 63}{space 4}-.4282465{col 76}{space 3}  .195462
{txt}{space 10}environment {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.441539{col 35}{space 2} .2277962{col 46}{space 1}    6.33{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .9950668{col 76}{space 3} 1.888011
{txt}{space 16}trade {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.5709971{col 35}{space 2}  .189668{col 46}{space 1}   -3.01{col 55}{space 3}0.003{col 63}{space 4}-.9427395{col 76}{space 3}-.1992548
{txt}powermilit_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-3.251927{col 35}{space 2} 1.603367{col 46}{space 1}   -2.03{col 55}{space 3}0.043{col 63}{space 4} -6.39447{col 76}{space 3}-.1093853
{txt}{space 5}openk_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0039379{col 35}{space 2} .0019507{col 46}{space 1}   -2.02{col 55}{space 3}0.044{col 63}{space 4}-.0077611{col 76}{space 3}-.0001147
{txt}{space 4}NUMIGO_first_year {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.016654{col 35}{space 2} .0045141{col 46}{space 1}   -3.69{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0255015{col 76}{space 3}-.0078066
{txt}{space 15}leg_ap {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3340338{col 35}{space 2} .1935915{col 46}{space 1}    1.73{col 55}{space 3}0.084{col 63}{space 4}-.0453986{col 76}{space 3} .7134661
{txt}{space 14}rat_yrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.522558{col 35}{space 2} .5044852{col 46}{space 1}    3.02{col 55}{space 3}0.003{col 63}{space 4} .5337856{col 76}{space 3} 2.511331
{txt}{space 13}rat_yrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.5973913{col 35}{space 2} .3995024{col 46}{space 1}   -1.50{col 55}{space 3}0.135{col 63}{space 4}-1.380402{col 76}{space 3}  .185619
{txt}{space 13}rat_yrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0251254{col 35}{space 2} .0630059{col 46}{space 1}    0.40{col 55}{space 3}0.690{col 63}{space 4}-.0983639{col 76}{space 3} .1486148
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.793548{col 35}{space 2}  .524446{col 46}{space 1}    5.33{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 1.765653{col 76}{space 3} 3.821444
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. predict phat3 if e(sample)
{txt}(option {bf:pr} assumed; Pr(ratification))
(449 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. keep ratification phat phat2 phat3
{txt}
{com}. drop if phat==.
{txt}(0 observations deleted)

{com}. drop if phat2==.
{txt}(449 observations deleted)

{com}. drop if phat3==.
{txt}(0 observations deleted)

{com}. 
. export delimited using "test.csv", replace
{res}{txt}(note: file test.csv not found)
{txt}file test.csv saved

{com}. 
{txt}end of do-file

{com}. log close
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\tbohmelt\polybox\Treaty Ratification and Leadership\1_New Data\FPA Replication\FPA Stata Log File.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res} 1 Aug 2017, 10:32:35
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}